Ex-Polish Intelligence Officer On Weather Probes From Belarus: This Is Part Of Hybrid Influence
- 23.10.2025, 16:27
Drone launches to Poland and balloon launches to Lithuania are links in the same chain.
This was stated by Colonel Macej Korowai, a former officer of the Military Intelligence Service and now an expert of the Institute of the Eastern Flank at the Faculty of International Relations of the University of Bialystok, commenting to the "Rzeczpospolita" edition on the violation of the Lithuanian border by Belarusian meteoprobes, which occurred on October 22.
"Smugglers are unlikely to seek publicity, they avoid spectacular actions. It can't be ruled out that the smugglers were behind it, but that's very unlikely. I would prefer to look at it in the context of the actions of the Russian services: they are violating our security space, causing uncertainty and want to show the incompetence of our state through their response to such threats. They want to achieve a big effect at a cheap price - says Maciej Korowaj.
"This is part of a hybrid effect on our sense of security. Recently in Poland drones were used for this purpose, now in Lithuania they are using balloons. "They have the best 'legend' for this kind of actions," the expert claims.
This is not the first time Lithuania is facing balloon incursions. Similar incidents occurred several times in September and early October. Major Katarzyna Zdanowicz, spokeswoman for the Podlaskie branch of Poland's border guard, says her country has also recorded balloons coming from Belarus several times. Since the beginning of the year, there have been more than 100 events related to cigarette smuggling by weather balloons on the border with Belarus, with a total value of more than 2.5 million zlotys.
Because of the threat of these balloons, Vilnius International Airport was closed from the evening of October 21 to 6:30 a.m. on October 22, and traffic through both operating border crossing points with Belarus - Miadininkai and Šalčininkai - was temporarily suspended overnight.
The last time Vilnius Airport was hit by smuggled balloons was in early October. Then more than 20 meteoprobes violated Lithuanian airspace.