Foreign Affairs: The Price Of Trump's Unpredictability

• 2.10.2025, 15:33

The U.S. is becoming less and less believable.

US President Donald Trump's policies differ sharply from the approaches of his predecessors and are causing a serious weakening of international trust in the United States, writes Foreign Affairs (translated by Charter97.org).

Traditionally, American foreign policy has relied on the credit of trust. Allies and partners trusted that the U.S. would honor its commitments, while adversaries took Washington's past actions into account when planning their moves.

Trump, however, has made unpredictability a strategic tool. He has abruptly changed positions on key issues, threatened allies, praised adversaries and withdrawn from international agreements. This approach allowed him to achieve short-term victories, such as increased defense spending by European countries and trade concessions from Brussels.

But experts warn that the long-term consequences for the United States are extremely negative. Allies begin to seek independence and diversify ties, while adversaries get an incentive to build alliances with each other. Confidence in U.S. security guarantees wanes, and the ability of the U.S. to effectively mediate on the international stage diminishes.

Trump hoped to use what he called the "madman theory," making world leaders wary of his decisions. He has also used flattery and pressure to negotiate favorable agreements. But these tactics are temporary, with more nations adapting to his unpredictability, US influence is declining.

American experts note that restoring confidence in the country will be a long process, and even Trump's successor will face consequences - allies will be wary, adversaries will more actively test Washington's position, and the cost of containing threats will increase.

History is likely to judge Trump's strategy as replacing stable trust with chaotic unpredictability, which has made the United States a less reliable partner on the world stage.