The Iranian Regime Is Headed For War
- 2.10.2025, 10:39
There is a formal reason for the attack.
Iranians seriously expect that during October or, in any case, before the New Year, Israel, backed by the United States, will resume military action against the Islamic republic.
Rahbar (chief) of the regime, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is hiding deep underground and making rare speeches at unidentified places and times. All top commanders of the armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are also in hiding, avoiding prolonged stays at their homes and changing their sleeping places every night. Public speeches of officials and politicians are full of bellicose statements about readiness to repel any attack...
The expectation of a strike similar to the Israeli raids that in June in 12 days eliminated almost the entire top management of the country's military complex, neutralized the air defense system and a significant part of the missile program, is felt daily and hourly.
The formal reason for the attack is there.
The Islamic Republic has violated commitments to curb a nuclear program aimed at building an atomic bomb by ignoring six U.N. Security Council resolutions, and a full set of sanctions has been renewed as of Sept. 28 that could lead to the collapse of the Iranian economy. Disruptions in the supply of water, electricity, gas are increasing, inflation is already galloping, the national currency is weakening: the American dollar is already worth more than a million rials.
Besides economic sanctions, as some Iranian political scientists and analysts believe, the Security Council has already effectively authorized international armed action against this country in accordance with Chapter VII of the UN Charter on the maintenance or restoration of international peace and security by force when it cannot be done otherwise, as was the case, for example, with the U.S. and Iran. To do so, the chief had to agree to meet Western conditions: eliminate the nuclear and missile programs, stop sponsoring terrorist organizations throughout the Middle East, roll back the suppression of dissent, open television to independent channels, release political prisoners, prevent the Guardian Corps from influencing the country's economic and cultural policies, and so on.
It quickly became clear that Khamenei did not agree to such a surrender.
The expectations of a way out of the crisis without war through changes in Iranian politics did not materialize. For some time there was hope that the Iranian regime would be undermined from within by internal strife. But the Islamists began to consolidate power by repression. According to the foreign opposition, at least 1,000 people have been executed in Iran since the beginning of the year, and a significant proportion of the victims have ended up on the gallows for political reasons.
The last, dying hope for a weakening of the regime was the expectation that the country's leading figures would flee abroad. Now there are more and more reports about the relocation of families and property of officials and generals by secret special flights to Russia, Tajikistan, UAE and other countries, but this trend is not massive.
Watchers are becoming increasingly confident that the collapse of the regime created in 1979 by Ayatollah Khomeini is not far off. The Iranian authorities are openly giving the Israelis an excuse to launch new strikes. The restoration of nuclear program facilities has begun. Repair work is underway at the solid rocket fuel plants in Parchin and Shahroud. A test launch of an intercontinental missile at the Semnan test site has been announced.
Israel has long promised to respond militarily to such actions, and this time the goal of the attack is not to damage the Iranian military machine, but to eliminate the Islamic Republic's regime.
Neither Tehran's opponents nor the authorities in Tehran see any other way out of the critical situation.
Mikhail Krutikhin, The Moscow Times