Dmitry Bondarenko: Lukashenko Will Release All Political Prisoners In The Near Future

• 16.10.2025, 22:23

Sanctions will force the release of everyone.

There have been several important developments in the war in Ukraine recently: the AFU has successfully attacked Russian oil refineries, and US President Donald Trump has announced his readiness to transfer Tomahawk missiles to Kiev. Should we expect changes on the front?

About this, as well as about the release of Belarusian political prisoners, Charter97.org spoke with the coordinator of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Dmitry Bondarenko:

- The situation in Ukraine has changed dramatically, and the main factor has been the use of drones and all technologies related to them in the war. The commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Alexandr Syrsky, said that the so-called "death zone" on the Ukrainian-Russian front is now about ten kilometers.

If at the beginning of the year it was 500 meters to a kilometer, now it is ten kilometers. The absolute majority of military targets on both sides today are destroyed by drones. Even artillery or missile strikes are carried out using intelligence obtained, among other things, from drones. This is a major change.

We see that Russia's so-called "summer offensive" - the 2025 offensive - completely failed: huge losses and minimal advance. Nevertheless, the war is going on the hardest, and it is now a war of attrition. After all, Russian aviation, missile and drone forces are striking at Ukraine's civilian infrastructure deep inside the country. This, of course, is very hard on the Ukrainian state and its citizens.

The Ukrainians are striking back, and this has caused an energy crisis in Russia. We know that oil prices in the world have plummeted, while in Russia there is a shortage of gasoline and other fuels, and there are disruptions in the work of chemical plants.

I don't really believe that deliveries of Tomahawks from the U.S. side to Ukraine will really start. Even if a decision is made, its implementation will take time, as it did with the F-16s. The very talk of Tomahawks is an act of intimidation, a signal to the Kremlin. Trump has already lost patience in talking to Vladimir Putin, although he shows outward loyalty and respect for him. Nevertheless, we see that European countries are actively helping Ukraine, including buying American weapons and transferring them to the AFU.

If Ukraine continues to receive help from the West, primarily Europe, there is a chance that it can win the war. Because, as President Trump says, Russia's economy could suddenly collapse.

- Lukashenko said that he is "ready for a big deal with the United States." Why did the dictator suddenly talk about negotiations? Should we expect real actions as a result of this deal.

- Let's look at the fate of Lukashenko's friends. I won't even bring up Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein, dictators who were overthrown and executed. Lukashenko's allies for years were Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Bashar al-Assad with his terrorist army, and Russia, which never won the war. Iran and its proxies have been crushingly defeated by Israeli and US strikes

So Lukashenko is afraid that those Tomahawks will indeed be handed over to the AFU, while Russian troops are on the territory of Belarus. Where is the guarantee that the strikes will not hit military facilities and decision-making centers - i.e. his residences?

Also, the threat of a trade war between the U.S. and China has arisen again, and trade sanctions may be imposed against Beijing. What kind of "grand bargain" could we be talking about? It's a deal between a bedbug and an elephant. That is why the bedbug Lukashenko (or, to whom it is more familiar, a cockroach) declares his readiness for a "big deal", hoping to preserve his power and life. He expects that if he demonstrates loyalty and compliments the American president, he will avoid the fate of his dictator friends.

We remember how, before the fall of the Assad regime, there was talk that he was "becoming handshakeable," that Europeans and even Americans were ready to meet with him within the framework of realpolitik. It was a distraction - a short time later, the Assad regime collapsed in just two weeks.

Lukashenko thinks, "If I praise Trump, I won't get hit too hard." That's what his "grand bargain" is all about. Of course, he expects to reap some economic benefits. Lukashenko has realized that it is too expensive to hold political prisoners. So he will release them, asking for something for himself.

- Has the sanctions pressure on the regime worked? After all, many apologists of dialog with Lukashenko say: it was not the pressure that freed the political prisoners, but the Americans' conversations with the dictator.

- I want to repeat the words of my friend Evgeny Afnagel, who spent five years in Lukashenko's prisons. He said it right: people who claim that sanctions don't work simply don't know the recent history of Belarus. The release of political prisoners has always happened only under the pressure of sanctions.

And Lukashenko himself actually recognized this, saying, "We have adapted to the sanctions, but I wish there were none." Belaruskali's markets in Brazil have been lost, and the cries that sanctions will lead to "starvation among African children" turned out to be empty. On the contrary - Lukashenko was forced to dump, and thus brought down prices on the world potash market. This allowed poor countries to buy fertilizers cheaper.

The same with oil products. Yes, Belarusian gasoline now goes to Russia, but at domestic prices, not to the Netherlands or Great Britain, where prices are several times higher. Putin demands supplies almost for free. But in case Ukrainian Tomahawks or Neptuns hit the Mozyr and Novopolotsk refineries, which fuel Russia's military equipment, Lukashenko's regime may simply collapse. Because potash exports and oil refining are the backbone of Lukanomics.

The sanctions are in effect. And if Lukashenko stops repression and releases all political prisoners, even the civil campaign "European Belarus" will be ready to talk about lifting the sanctions. International experts say Lukashenko will have to take a serious step: to release all political prisoners and stop repression. This may happen in the near future.

- After Lithuania's decision to reduce the level of Svetlana Tikhanovska's security, her office in Vilnius even temporarily suspended work. How do you assess this decision of the Lithuanian authorities and the reaction of Tihanovska's office?

- I think this decision was not taken without analyzing the Lithuanian security services and law enforcement agencies. In particular, the information that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya received at least 15 thousand euros from a general of the Belarusian special services influenced it.

It was a shock. In the conditions of the war in Ukraine and the tense situation in the region, the Lithuanian authorities check very carefully the Belarusians, applying for asylum or residence permits. There are known cases when young people, who served in the Belarusian army or the Ministry of Emergency Situations, were refused with the wording "threat to national security."

And here the so-called "leader" received a large sum of money from the general of Lukashenko's special services. A natural question arises: does Svetlana Tihanovska pose a threat to the security of Lithuania?

Some Lithuanian parliamentarians said that in fact it is not Lithuania that spends a million euros, but the structures affiliated with Svetlana Tihanovska receive about 50 million euros a year from international organizations to Lithuania. This is a favorable situation for Lithuania. But this information has caused a strong reaction among many Belarusians, who wonder what these hundreds of millions of euros for several years were used for.

In my opinion, Svetlana Tikhanovska is obsessed with power. In February, I was at a human rights conference in Gdansk, attended by respected people - veterans of Polish Solidarity, former presidential candidates Alexander Milinkevich, Andrei Sannikov, journalists and former political prisoners. Tikhanovskaya traveled with her entourage and three guards, ate only in the VIP-zone, and she was literally bursting with a sense of self-importance.

She is already like Lukashenko - she can't do without the trappings of power. That's why Natalya Radina is right when she says: it's time to stop playing "leader" and live like all Belarusian refugees who have found themselves abroad.

And these resources could be directed to real help to political prisoners, their families, to support thousands of repressed Belarusians. There are a lot of sensitive categories among refugees - pensioners, who receive neither Belarusian pension, which, by the way, is impossible to live on in the West, nor Lithuanian or Polish pension. There are the disabled and other vulnerable groups. There are a huge number of people who simply need this money.

Specific figures were voiced: this million euros, which goes to guard Tihanouskaya, could be used to provide one-time assistance in the amount of 770 euros to each of the 1300 Belarusian political prisoners after their release. Let's compare: what is more important - real help to the needy Belarusians or indulging the ego of Sviatlana Tihanouskaya and her advisers - Vecherko and Kuchynski? In my opinion, the answer is obvious for sensible people.