Pavel Lakiychuk: Turkey's Decision Was A Serious Blow For Russia

• 14.10.2025, 22:32

The captain of the Ukrainian Navy told about the causes of the accident on the submarine "Novorossiysk".

The accident of the Russian submarine B-261 "Novorossiysk" off the coast of France has become another blow to the reputation of the Russian Federation Navy. The submarine was forced to surface due to a fuel leak, posing a threat of an explosion on board. The incident clearly demonstrated how vulnerable even the newest ships of the Russian navy remain.

Captain of the Ukrainian Navy of the first rank, head of military programs at the Strategy XXI Globalist Center Pavel Lakiychuk told Charter97.org what the accident is related to and what problems the Russian submarine fleet is experiencing:

- The accident on the "Novorossiysk" occurred more than a week ago. Why did the boat end up off the coast of France? According to reports, as early as ten days ago, fuel oil leaks began to be detected in the bilges - the fuel oil tanks were damaged. The crew was not able to eliminate the malfunction on their own. Before that, the submarine was in the area of Syria. After surfacing it was recorded by observers, and then it headed for the exit from the Mediterranean Sea. The second time "Novorossiysk" was recorded in the area of Gibraltar - again in a state of emergency. At the moment the submarine is in the Atlantic. The Bay of Biscay has passed - and thank you for that. After all, if it had sunk, an ecological catastrophe would have been inevitable. Of course, these are not the tankers that sank near Anapa a year ago, polluting the sea with fuel oil, but the situation is very alarming.

Why exactly "Novorossiysk" was in the center of attention? It is a submarine of the Black Sea Fleet. It went on combat duty in the area of Syria from Sevastopol back in 2021. Back then, Russian submarines were regularly striking Syrian cities with Kalibr cruise missiles, just as they are now striking Ukrainian territory from the waters of the Tsemes Bay. After the full-scale aggression against Ukraine began, Turkey closed the Black Sea straits to warships of the warring parties - Ukraine and Russia. This was less of a problem for Ukraine, since we actually do not have a full-fledged fleet. Although several Ukrainian minesweepers under the national flag and with Ukrainian crews have been serving in the British Navy for several years - they were badly needed.

For Russia, Turkey's decision was a serious blow. By the beginning of 2022, there was a large Russian naval group in the Mediterranean Sea, preparing for war. Landing ships from the Baltic and Northern Fleets had earlier entered the Black Sea, and strike forces were awaiting orders. The cruiser Moskva, the largest of these, was sunk. Russia has three cruisers in total; the other two were in the Mediterranean at the time. Ankara's decision therefore came as a complete surprise to the Kremlin.

The Northern and Pacific fleets subsequently returned to their bases, while the Novorossiysk submarine remained in the Mediterranean - it was not allowed home. From 2021 to 2025, she was actually there without full-fledged repairs. Constant operation does not improve the condition of the equipment, nor does it improve the physical condition of the crew. This is not the first incident with "Novorossiysk": earlier the malfunctions could be eliminated on the spot, now the boat is sent to the factory.

There are two versions of further actions. According to the first one, the submarine will head north, although in its emergency condition it is unlikely to be allowed through the Baltic straits. The second option is to return to the Nevsky shipyard in St. Petersburg, where the boat was built. Most likely, that is where it is headed, unless, of course, it crashes on the way.

- Can we expect new accidents and incidents in the Russian Navy, considering the condition of the ships, the personnel shortage and the quality of maintenance?

- Certainly, especially in the Black Sea Fleet, where the probability of "accidents" is extremely high. As for other fleets - much depends on specific projects. Russia has a lot of old ships, they are not even worth talking about. There is only one combat-ready large ship left in the Black Sea Fleet - "Ladny" or "Pytlivy" (one of the ships of Project 1135). They no longer go to sea and do not participate in the war, performing more of a demonstration function.

From combat-ready units, it is worth noting Project 11356 frigates built after 2015 and Bujan-type corvettes - more modern ships. Project 636 submarines are also relatively new, but they too have a number of serious problems. First of all, this concerns surface ships with Russian-made gas turbine units - they are extremely unreliable and technologically "crude".

The smaller Bujan-type ships are equipped with diesel power plants, which were originally designed for German engines. After sanctions were imposed in 2014, deliveries stopped, Russia tried to establish its own production, but domestic diesels turned out to be of low quality. The result is a paradox: the newer the ship, the less reliable it is in terms of energy.

The second serious problem is radio-electronic compatibility. Various radar, navigation and communication systems should not interfere with each other, but Russia has not perfected this process. This leads to unpredictable consequences - from loss of controllability to unauthorized use of weapons.

Another serious problem is insufficient training of crews. In 2023, some of the crew was removed from the large anti-submarine ship Admiral Vinogradov and sent to the 155th Marine Brigade, where an entire battalion was formed. In fact, the marines there are manned by sailors. This is the third systemic problem of the Russian Navy.

- How do you assess the current combat capabilities of the Russian Black Sea Fleet after the strikes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces - what types of ships and bases still pose a threat, and what has already been effectively put out of service?

- If we talk about combat capabilities, at the beginning of the war with Ukraine, the Black Sea Fleet had four main tasks.

First - blockade of the Ukrainian coast of the Black Sea. The second was to conduct amphibious operations. The third was to support land forces in the seaside direction, including artillery and logistical support. Fourth - participation in missile strikes on the territory of Ukraine.

At the moment, the Black Sea Fleet is no longer able to perform three of these four tasks. The only thing it can still do is to carry out missile strikes. According to my estimates, its combat capabilities have been reduced by about 75%. We can put it simply: out of the four tasks, the fleet is capable of performing only one.