WP Named The Biggest Threat To China
- 12.10.2025, 17:23
And it's not the United States.
The most serious threat to China today is not U.S. policy or the actions of President Donald Trump's administration, but the growing demographic decline, which has already reached historic proportions. This was reported on October 11 by The Washington Post
China's population is shrinking at an unprecedented rate, a process that experts say will affect the country and the world for decades.
The slowdown in labor force growth could undermine Beijing's economic ambitions to become a global power comparable to the United States. At the same time, labor shortages could disrupt supply chains - from toys and shoes to smartphones and electric cars, the publication said.
The head of Asian economics at Oxford Economics, Louise Lu, said it is "almost impossible to stop the demographic decline." She estimated that a shrinking labor force could reduce annual GDP growth by about 0.5 percent over the next decade.
The causes of the demographic crisis go back to the 1970s, when the country introduced birth control policies. The "later, less, less often" campaign and the subsequent one-child policy (1979) drastically reduced the birth rate. Authorities then resorted to forced sterilizations and abortions, and huge fines were imposed for exceeding the quota of children.
When the birth rate fell too low, the state tried to loosen restrictions: in 2016, it was allowed to have two children, and from 2021 - three. However, the birth rate never recovered: from 1.77 children per woman in 2016, the rate fell to 1.12 in 2021, the media noted.
The situation is exacerbated by the high costs of raising children. According to the YuWa Institute of Demography, the average cost of raising a child in China is about $74,963, and up to $140,747 in megacities like Shanghai.
The number of marriages is also falling sharply, with only 6.1 million couples registered in 2024 compared to 13.5 million in 2013. This portends a further decline in the birth rate, as almost all children in China come from registered families.
The government is trying to encourage marriage and childbearing - through subsidies, social pressure and even dating courses at universities. However, many young people prefer the personal freedom and care of elderly parents over the traditional family model.
Life expectancy is rising, and the number of elderly people in the country will double in the next 30 years. This will put an enormous strain on the pension system and social resources. The UN predicts that by 2100, there will be fewer people of working age in China than those outside of it.