Mark Feigin: Lukashenka Realizes That He Becomes Target
- 22.07.2024, 13:30
The dictator is in a difficult situation.
Russian lawyer and well-known blogger Mark Feigin has explained the procrustean bed in which Lukashenka finds himself.
“I'm sure it's some kind of game,” Mark Feigin commented on the situation with the alleged withdrawal of troops from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border on News Factory. “First of all, the Ukrainian side has not withdrawn any troops, no de-escalation, as the Belarusian side says, because this is a very dangerous direction. They even entered Kyiv region from this direction.
This may be Lukashenka's game in case an offensive is really being prepared from the north (and Moscow may be preparing such an offensive). Perhaps Lukashenka wants to remove at least some part of responsibility from himself in order to avoid consequences.
After all, I have withdrawn my troops, and the rest is Moscow, what can I do.
The second option is that Moscow itself could instruct Lukashenka to perform such a maneuver to mislead everyone that there is no threat from the north, and then attack afterwards.
Lukashenka once declared that there would never be an attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. Nevertheless, it happened.
That is why I do not believe his statements. It is a trick, and it seems to me that a more credible version is that it is important for him to fix his non-participation, as if he is “neutral” and is not involved in the attack on Ukraine.
Lukashenka realizes that if an attack from the north takes place, then in response they will first of all strike not even at Moscow, but at him. Lukashenka will become a legitimate target.
He is responsible for what happens on the territory of the sovereign, as he assures, Belarus. And if it is used as a springboard again, no one will repeat the second Bucha.”
Feigin believes that fears of a second attack on Ukraine from the territory of Belarus are not groundless.
“The question is: will there be a new attempt to seize Kyiv from the north? Let's go from the contrary - why shouldn't there be? Has Moscow changed its plans? It is already shelling children's hospitals.
It is not far from Kyiv to Belarus, closer than moving from Chasiv Yar or the left bank of the Dnipro. Obviously, they will not just leave these plans alone.
What arguments are there against the possibility of this happening again - Putin won't want it, Lukashenka won't allow it? These are not arguments.
The north of Ukraine is sufficiently armed with the AFU: there are huge minefields, special fortifications, and the entire defense line has been prepared with the help of the West.
Therefore, one should not imagine such an easy walk. Personally, I think that the Kyiv direction will definitely get choked, they will not be able to achieve significant success from the north, but Lukashenka will definitely suffer as a result.
I think this has been explained to him, and he realizes it himself. He is not a fool when it comes to his security.
However, it would be favorable for Moscow to drag Lukashenka in completely, so that there would be no turning back, so that he would stop fooling back and forth. He was also saying that he would talk to Putin about negotiations. This is ridiculous. Who is Lukashenka to talk to Putin about negotiations?
There is a big game going on, and we can definitely see that Lukashenka does not want to be dragged into a war. He doesn't want a new attack from the territory of Belarus. But nobody is going to ask him.
That is why he can keep saying publicly that we have nothing to do with it. But this is an unsellable version - neither to Ukraine, nor to the West. In case of a new attack, I think, the West will allow us to consider Belarus as a retaliatory target.
And the Belarusian people will be tempted to take advantage of this situation to end up with the regime,” Feigin believes.
Trying to get out of the difficult situation with the war, Lukashenka, in his opinion, will not find China's support in this matter.
“On the one hand, Lukashenka wants to shield with China from Moscow, on the other hand, he is dependent on China. Another thing is how can China influence this situation?
Let's say Lukashenka asks Xi Jinping to persuade Putin not to enter Ukraine from the side of Belarus. But why would Xi Jinping get involved in this, especially since Putin might not listen in this case.
I don't think that China is a strong ally of Lukashenka in the issue of war against Moscow.
I would compare the situation in which the Belarusian ruler finds himself with a procrustean bed. And it will not be possible to shield himself with Beijing here.
Therefore, if something happens, Lukashenka will be turned in, he will be sacrificed,” concluded Feigin.