Ivan Yakovina: Putin, Lukashenka Preparing Flareup In Baltic Region
- 10.06.2024, 7:55
There are signs of preparation.
International observer Ivan Yakovina told Ukrainian Radio NV about what Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and his vassal Lukashenka may be preparing in relation to the Baltic States and why this will throw NATO into a dilemma:
- Belarus is already being supplied with weapons - cruise and ballistic missiles, including those with nuclear warheads. ‘Iskanders’ are in service there, ballistic missiles, it is not difficult to attach a nuclear warhead to them. I think that Putin is going to supply Lukashenka with cruise missiles, some kind of Oniks.
In addition, I think we are talking about [supplying] hundreds of thousands of drones, as well as communication jamming systems, particularly for satellite communications. Putin is going to supply Lukashenka with all of this. Tanks, cannons and some sort of BMPs, perhaps, too, but not likely. They won't even be needed in the war that Putin has planned against the Baltic states.
I am not saying that it will happen necessarily, but I think the risks are getting higher and higher. That is, the preparation of Vladimir Putin and his ally Aliaksandr Lukashenka for some very serious flareup in the Baltic region, I believe, is undoubtedly [ongoing]. And the fact that Putin is categorically denying that something is being prepared only convinces me that, yes, indeed, they are preparing.
What may happen? In November of this year, there will be a presidential election in the United States. For a few months Americans will be busy with their own problems, they will not care about events in the distant Baltic forests, so, I suspect, America will simply not be able to come to the aid of its allies in the Baltic States in time.
All in all, we can say that Russians, most likely, may not be afraid of the US entering the war on the side of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, in case Russia invades these countries. America might intervene, but not immediately. America will first scratch its head, then it will think how to negotiate, and then it can only make decisions, and that if it is not much more engaged in its own affairs than in events on the other side of the world.
The price of human life in the West has become very high. The Americans will not risk people's lives just like that, even for the sake of some of their allies. And without the United States, NATO will not do much in the Baltic region, it will simply not be able to.
What will happen in the event of a Russian attack? There will be a strike: hundreds of thousands of drones, dozens of, probably, cruise and ballistic missiles [will fly] from Belarus to Lithuania, perhaps some other Baltic states will be struck as well. I think that within literally two or three days Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania will be essentially cut off from other NATO countries. Because if Russian or Belarusian or mixed Russian-Belarusian troops manage to establish this corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad region, then Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia will in fact remain on the island. On one side will be Russia, on the other side will be the Baltic Sea. It will be very difficult to help other allies to somehow land their troops on this island.
In my opinion, the whole thing will be set up not as a Russian attack on a NATO country. For Putin understands that it is very risky, and it's a bit scary for him. I am almost sure that it will be arranged as a conflict between Belarus and Lithuania.
Putin has his own madman in the face of Aliaksandr Lukashenka. He has given him nuclear weapons in order for the madman to have a nuclear bomb.
In case of a strike from Belarus on Lithuania, Russia will say: ‘God, what a horror, of course we are against it, we are not there, it's not us. We are against war, we are very sorry that this happened, we are absolutely in favour of peace, we offer Belarus and Lithuania to come to an agreement. However, we want to say that if NATO suddenly tries to attack Belarus now, we as allies will be forced to respond with a strike against NATO countries, we will not tolerate it. So let's make sure that all this war goes only between Belarus and Lithuania, so that it does not spill over into a broader format of confrontation between NATO and the Russian Federation.
And Lukashenka will announce that if Poland or some [other country] comes to help Lithuania (in fact, only one NATO army can come by land - the Polish army, except for the Latvian army, but it's not that big), ‘I, Lukashenka, will respond with a nuclear strike on Polish or some other cities. That is, don't get involved, it's between us and Lithuania, we'll sort it out ourselves.‘
Lukashenka really has an absolutely key role of a hand psychopath, he will threaten with a nuclear strike and may even launch a nuclear strike against someone, probably Poland, if Poland tries to help the Lithuanians.
Poland does not have nuclear weapons, which is why, by the way, the Poles, I think, with this kind of scenario in mind, have recently invited the Americans to deploy nuclear weapons on their territory.
Poland will be faced with a choice: either it helps Lithuania, risking nuclear strikes from Lukashenka on Warsaw, on Krakow, on some other cities, or it stays out of it and waits for the nuclear-armed states within NATO - Great Britain, France and the United States - to speak out.
There will be a very serious desperation for the NATO countries, one that is intellectual: are [they] willing to sacrifice tens of millions of lives of their citizens for the sake of defence, each of the leaders of the Western world, especially the nuclear-armed countries, for the sake of defending Lithuania, for example? I'm not 100 per cent sure that the British government or the French government would say, ‘Yes, we are ready to lose tens of millions of our citizens, but to save Lithuania.’ And by the way, it is not yet a fact that to save.
The high cost of human life becomes a big problem for the Western countries in the scenario of nuclear escalation by Russia, Belarus. That's why I think that the Western countries, NATO, facing an invasion of Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia, or all three countries at the same time, will be long coordinating and deciding on how to respond. And each of the NATO countries will, of course, try to remove their own soldiers from the battlefield, from the front line, so as not to risk their own cities. And the probable inability and unwillingness of the Americans to intervene in this kind of situation may turn out to be very expensive for Europe and for the whole world.
We are getting to the point where there is a very high probability that in the case of a Russian invasion from the territory of Belarus, a significant part of Lithuania will be occupied within a week or two weeks, and in response NATO will be paralysed, NATO will not be able to respond adequately, in time.