ISW: Putin Takes Risky Step
- 12.05.2024, 10:31
The United States analyzed the situation in the Kharkiv region.
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) revealed Putin's motives for the operation in the Kharkiv region, calling it a "risky step." Analysts point to the Kremlin's hopes for the weakness of the Ukrainian counter-offensives.
Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command can perceive the risks of offensive operations in the north of the Kharkiv region on the assumption that Ukraine will not be able to liberate the territories captured by Russian forces.
According to the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Putin likely believes his army has stopped Ukrainian efforts to reclaim territory, and U.S. and Western support for Ukraine is allegedly limited.
The timing of Russian offensive operations in the north of the Kharkiv region remains uncertain, but it is possible that Russian forces do not plan to achieve their operational goals at all in the summer of 2024.
The Kremlin military command may believe that Russia's soldiers will hold on to any limited gains in the north of the Kharkiv region and elsewhere at all times, as it is convinced that the Ukrainian Defence Forces will not go on a successful counteroffensive in the near term.
“Putin may believe that Russian forces can continue to make opportunistic and unchallenged advances throughout the frontline over the next months, or even years, and ultimately force Ukraine to submit to total Russian subjugation,” analysts write.
Limited Russian operations in the north of the Kharkiv region suggest that restoring the security of U.S. aid did not change Putin's calculus, or he launched the Kharkiv operation without reassessing fundamental assumptions about Ukrainian capabilities amid the aid recovery.
The Russian army is attacking with forces that are significantly lower than the stated number, which is a risky decision for the Kremlin. So far, it is advancing in several areas that do not provide direct pathways to Kharkiv or other important operational targets.
In general, ISW insists that Ukraine needs to disrupt such Russian calculations as soon as possible with both limited and large-scale counteroffensive operations, as soon as circumstances allow.
Analysts state: the West must actively and in advance provide Ukrainian troops with the necessary equipment and weapons for their future counteroffensive operations.