‘Lukashenka On The Border Is A Signal’
- 1.04.2024, 13:01
Why did the dictator start to threaten the Baltic countries and Poland?
Anna Maria Dyner, an expert at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), commented for PAP on Lukashenka's visit to the border with Lithuania.
"Since March 11, Belarus has been undergoing another comprehensive check of the combat readiness of the country's Armed Forces. Dictator Aliaksandr Lukashenka took the opportunity to go to the Lithuanian border to "inspect the tank battalion" and send several messages to the Baltic neighbours and Poland," the analyst said.
Dressed in a military uniform, Lukashenka, holding a white Spitz on his knees, did not hide his threats. Among several other statements, he asked the commander of the Northwestern Operational Command about a possible attack on the so-called Suwalki corridor and stated that “any provocation at the border will be stopped by military means.”
"The Suwalki corridor, or rather what we often call the Hrodna Gate, is a significant place, the shortest route from Russia-controlled Belarus to the enclave of the Kaliningrad region. This is a key area for the ground defence of the Baltic countries in the potential conflict between Russia and NATO. Lukashenka knows that this topic will cause public reaction in the West and feed fear.
I think this is the main reason why this topic was raised at all,” said Anna Maria Dyner.
At the same time, she stressed that "not only Russia and Belarus are aware of the importance of this section."
"The fact that this is a sensitive area does not mean that it’s easy to attack for geographical reasons (forest cover, terrain). In addition, allied forces are gathered nearby – both in Lithuania and Poland. In addition, both sides know that NATO member states in the region have a very high potential to influence the Kaliningrad region. Therefore, I would rather consider Lukashenka's statements as threats, influence on public opinion," the analyst said.
According to her, in the military-political sense, this "visit" of Lukashenka was a signal for the Baltic countries, Poland, and the West that Belarus was allegedly able to protect itself in this direction.
"It can also be a signal to Russia that Belarus holds this "western flank"," she said. She added, "Belarusians may be working out a cover for some larger Russian operation, which could cause concern.”