Strong Hint For Lukashenka

• 21.03.2024, 9:03

The dictator balances on the edge.

The Russian media are unwillingly flirting with an interesting topic. According to various estimates, the strikes on the refineries affected about 10% of Russian oil refining. It seems not critical, but there is a feature.

According to industry and business publications, the vulnerability of the Russian fuel market is the insufficient volume of domestic gasoline production with an octane rating of 95+. For example, problems may begin with the A-95, there will be a shortage in case of high demand or continued strikes.

To solve the problem, you can import A-95. The most obvious source is the refinery in Belarus. In particular, the Mazyr Refinery is a modern enterprise located 28 kilometres from the border with Ukraine.

Russian propaganda media unwittingly hint that if Belarusian gasoline is supplied to the Russian market, this refinery may become a legitimate target and slice of the pie. Anything that has a 50+ kilometers range is a threat to it. Everything will eventually turn into ruins.

Belarus exports gasoline to third countries. It was unprofitable to supply to Russia due to lower prices. But in the event of a shortage, prices will rise, so there will be temptation. And senior comrades from the Kremlin can ask.

Now the self-proclaimed ruler of Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, is balancing on the edge: he refuses to send troops to Ukraine, although he handed over shells, part of armored vehicles and artillery to the Russian army. Belarusian sewing and other enterprises serve the Russian army.

Ukraine has always shown restraint in its relations with Belarus. Therefore, it was possible to avoid direct battles.

But in Russia, there may be groups who, for their selfish reasons, would be happy to destroy the Mazyr Refinery and spark conflict between Kyiv and Minsk. Drones change their trajectory. They can come from any direction.

Oleksiy Kopytsko, Facebook