Systemic Counterattack Methodology: Experts Discuss Potential War Scenarios Following Syrsky's Arrival
- 12.02.2024, 16:53
Is major operation possible in the near future?
Ukraine will conduct an aggressive defense in the near future, but the enemy will take advantage of the shift change for a serious blow.
This opinion was expressed in a commentary for TSN.ua by military experts Oleksandr Kovalenko and Roman Svitan.
“The overall goal will not change. We are talking about reaching the borders of 1991. The intermediate strategy will not change either. This means defense actions at least until the end of the first half of 2024. But taking into account the fact that Oleksandr Syrsky becomes Commander-in-Chief, we can draw conclusions that our actions in defense can become more active,” says military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Oleksandr Kovalenko.
And he adds: “That is, more methods of systemic counterattacks and assault actions will be used. I can say that this will be a more aggressive defense. The second point: the question arises of how one can carry out a more aggressive defense than an active one when there is not enough ammunition. When there are problems with delivery from our partners. That's the question.”
According to Kovalenko, the issue of the supply of weapons and ammunition remains pressing:
“I do not exclude that a general plan of our actions will be formed, but until we receive sufficient help from our partners, until full supplies from our partners resume, I cannot talk about the implementation of such tactics as successful. Therefore, most likely, we will not see drastic changes in the near future.”
Is major operation possible in the near future?
The expert responds to this: “I don’t see the possibility of carrying out such an operation now in a combat zone. I don’t see a single location where this could be implemented. The prerequisites have been created in some areas. But to carry out such an operation — there are not enough resources for this. First of all this concerns artillery resources.”
In turn, military expert Roman Svitan does not even think about the possibility that the now former Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny could theoretically be appointed Prime Minister.
“It’s not about Syrsky, but about Zaluzhny. If Zaluzhny, after leaving military service, is appointed Prime Minister, and this requires a decision from the Verkhovna Rada, then this will be a positive development. If he was fired in order to be appointed Prime Minister, then this is a logical step,” says Svitan.
He added the message that such personnel changes in the military leadership are unsafe at the moment.
“Until the new team gets up to speed, and this takes time, the enemy can strike a serious blow. And the enemy will definitely take advantage of it. Now, during the shift change, we may lose the eastern front. They don’t change horses at the crossing; there is a lot of current at the crossing. Such things are not done when performing combat missions,” the expert sums up.