Political scientist: Lukashenka’s Departure Will Also Benefit China
- 3.01.2024, 19:30
The main thing for Belarus is the change of the ruling regime and integration with the West.
On Tuesday, January 2, five new countries joined the BRICS: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt and the UAE.
Is it really serious expansion and will this alliance become a real force? The Charter97.org spoke about this with Oleksandr Musienko, a military and political expert and head of the Ukrainian Center for Military and Legal Studies:
– Let’s start with the following. BRICS was created and positioned under the auspices of China as an alternative to the G7 and the Western economic project. China wanted to create its global project to demonstrate serious competition to the West, they say, look, we have countries that are guided by us.
Russia is not present there as a partner, but simply a member country of the union, which is fully dependent on the PRC. Other countries, for example, Brazil and India, pursue their interests in terms of trade and economic relations and assistance.
Please note that the new president of Argentina, Javier Miley, refused to join the union. So, BRICS is experiencing a certain crisis. Some countries do not want to enter it.
However, all the BRICS countries, except Russia, which is under sanctions, are interested in developing relations with the West. Pay attention to an interesting detail – China's trade turnover – the highest trade turnover of the PRC (almost a trillion dollars) is with the European Union. In second place is the United States.
Here I note that China's trade turnover with the Russian Federation increased in two years of a full-scale invasion, but it is 10 times less than the trade turnover with the EU. Here is an indicator.
BRICS has not earned its full potential and has not become an alternative to Western associations, companies and countries. Now it performs the function of such a symbolic project when you can get together and demonstrate that there is an alternative project "Global South" that wants to unite around China. Russia is hanging out there on the side of the pie.
– Then how real are the projects of the "single BRICS bank", "single BRICS currency", which in the Russian Federation is already called almost an alternative to the dollar?
– You know, I've heard about these projects for a long time. But it’s not a modern alternative at all. Roughly speaking, there are BRICS, there are China's interests, and there are some Russian plans.
China's interests in BRICS are to discover new markets, new opportunities in South America and Asian countries.
Russia's interest in the de-dollarization of the economy is completely unviable. But they can't accept it. How many times have we heard about the “death of the dollar”? How many "documentaries" were filmed by Russian television? They have been talking about it for decades, but it has not progressed anywhere.
China has developed trade and economic relations with the West, and it will not sacrifice this for the sake of BRICS.
– Lukashenka is eager to join the BRICS. Is this really possible now?
– It is clear that the Belarusian regime is looking for opportunities. For example, BRICS. But I don't really understand how it will help Belarus. I think that Lukashenka does not understand this. After all, they are now looking for active interaction with China directly, as well as with the countries of Southeast Asia.
I understand perfectly well that Russia will pull Lukashenka into BRICS because it perceives him as its project. I repeat, at the moment I do not see what Belarus should do there. Lukashenka is just following Putin.
Now the most important thing for Belarus is the change of the ruling regime and integration with the West. At least because of the geography. Your geographical location makes it possible to develop cooperation with countries both through the Baltic Sea and with Ukraine through the Black Sea.
By the way, Lukashenka's departure and democratic Belarus would also be of interest to China. Much more than the Russian intermediary in its current form.