Roman Svitan: It’s 100 % That Some Russian Generals Will Be Blamed For This Failure
- 10.01.2024, 14:11
It never happens any other way in Russia.
The German publication Bild expressed the opinion that Putin's winter offensive had failed. Russia is still as far from capturing Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region and Avdiivka in the Donetsk region as it was in the autumn of 2023.
The Charter97.org website asked reserve colonel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, instructor pilot and military expert Roman Svitan to assess the situation in these areas:
— I would not say that the Russian winter offensive has already failed. It will definitely last a couple more winter months. Especially when frost creates conditions for using equipment. The Russians are waiting for severe frosts so that the ground freezes and they can move tanks or heavy equipment on it.
Therefore, the offensive did not completely fail. The so-called first “golden month”, which is given to any advancing army to make the maximum throw, failed. This stage definitely failed. However, they will continue to put pressure on both Kupyansk and Avdiivka for another couple of months.
— Fortifications in Avdiivka were built at a time when you were a military adviser to the governor of the Donetsk region. Tell us how serious the fortifications were built?
— Three lines of defense were built. Just so you understand, the first one – Avdeevka – Marinka — is still holding up now.
The second is the level Kurakhovo - Karlivka - Ocheretyne. The third line of defense is a little deeper — this is the level of Velyka Novosilka — Pokrovsk —Dobropolye. Let me emphasize that we were strengthening ourselves seriously and for a long time. The Russians have not yet “opened” the first one.
I will say that in two months we passed through two lines of defense that they built in the direction of Tokmak. They haven’t “opened” our line almost anywhere yet. That's why we stand.
At that time, I was a military adviser from the administration, and General Serhiy Naev was directly in charge of military affairs. Now he is rebuilding the same defense lines in the north of Ukraine, strengthening the Sumy and Chernihiv regions.
— They want to present Avdiivka and the completion of the occupation of the Donetsk region as a success for Putin’s “elections.” Will the Russians succeed?
— No, this is no longer real. They have no ability to control either Avdiivka or Kupyansk. The first month of the winter offensive was the most difficult. The pressure was intense. Nevertheless, although with heavy losses, we survived it.
Now there are positional battles, and this is already routine work to destroy the Russians. They themselves come face-on to our machine guns.
— Will the heads of Russian generals roll if nothing is achieved by the “elections” in the Russian Federation?
— They will need to blame the failure on someone. The blame will 100% be shifted on some generals. It never happens any other way in Russia. The boyars are always to blame, not the tsar.