Political Analyst: Regime Representatives Well Aware That Everything Recorded After Them

• 26.09.2023, 11:52

They will have to answer for the crimes.

Against the background of the International Criminal Court investigation against Russian representatives for illegal deportation of children from the occupied territories, Belarusian officials continue to bring Ukrainian children and make a PR-campaign out of it.

At the same time, everyone saw Lukashenka's indignation at even the mention of the threat of an international court.

Filin asked political scientist Anatol Kotau to comment on the actions of the Belarusian authorities on the "recovery" of Ukrainian children.

"The regime's logic, of course, is not suicidal, but solely in the moment: there's no warrant now, there was nothing but some concern during the previous visits of children to Belarus - so it's possible," explains the interlocutor.

"The current Belarusian authorities have already got into the habit of not calculating the consequences in the long run.

The second important aspect of the so-called "recovery" is that this project is not gratuitous. Huge funds are allocated for it from the budget of the so-called Union State. In other words, in the moment - we have not been punished, we are also earning money from it - there are only pluses".

- Is there not a single person there who would say "what if..."?

- The problem is that people capable of analysing are being removed starting in 2020. Because the events that have happened and continue to happen in our country are explained by the same logic of the moment: now there is money made and no punishment, so let's continue on with the same thing.

As for the warrant for taking out children, it seems to me that the regime takes the international criminal prosecution itself seriously, but they are sure that the grounds related to the deportation of children alone are not enough, and they regard its issuance against the Belarusian ruler from the point of view of political expediency.

That is, the grounds for issuing the warrant appeared not even in April 2023, when the first reports and the first information about the Belarusian participation appeared. Children had been taken out even earlier.

However, despite all the evidence, the warrant against Lukashenka has not been issued yet. So, it's not only about the existence of grounds, it's also about some political will to carry it out.

Perhaps, the Belarusian side explains it to itself by saying that we are helping Russia, but not fighting, so we have not crossed some red lines, after which such a political decision can be taken.

The logic of these three arguments in a sense unleashes hands, so they will demonstratively take children.

The only conditionally affected in this story is the head of the Belarusian Red Cross Society Dzmitry Sheutsou, and so far he has been affected not so much for the children as for the Z-symbolism.

Therefore, I think, in its own paradigm, the regime is acting very rationally. It is another matter that they will have to answer for it at some point.

But they have been living in this dimension - in a single day - for the third year, since the events of 2020, and in some episodes much earlier, since the late 90s.

And with the exception of the trial of Yury Harauski, which has recently begun, they have not been held accountable for what they have done. No one has been punished, imprisoned or detained abroad. Yes, the possibility of doing business was restricted in certain areas, but this is like a mosquito bite in this context.

- Nevertheless, the collection of documents and evidence of Lukashenka's regime's crimes against both Ukrainian children and Belarusians continues.

- Yes, although it has not yet created serious obstacles for the regime. The documentation of human rights violations and torture in Belarus continues.

And representatives of the regime know very well that everything is being recorded and documented. Moreover, the information generated by the regime itself will be much more valuable from the legal point of view.

Paper or electronic registers are kept there in one way or another. There are witnesses who are involved in all this, and a lot of people are also compiling files against each other, just in case the power changes. We are aware of such facts.