Karbalevich: Russia Demonstratively Neglects Lukashenka
- 18.09.2023, 8:21
This time the tradition has been broken.
This was Aliaksandr Lukashenka's seventh visit to Russia this year. Five times he flew specially for talks with Vladimir Putin. In May, he came to Moscow for the EAEU summit, during which he had a short meeting with the Russian president. And there was also a trip to celebrate Victory Day on May 9 (this is when Lukashenka looked very sick), writes political analyst Valeryi Karbalevich for Free News.
The current trip, which Aliaksandr Lukashenka's press service called a "working visit," came unexpectedly. It was not announced. It was learnt about only when Lukashenka had already flown to Sochi. In order to somehow mix the situation (so that they wouldn't say that as soon as Putin called, Lukashenka ran), the Pool One telegram channel hastened to say that the talks had been planned "earlier in accordance with the schedule of meetings between the two leaders". However, this rejoinder rather convinces otherwise.
What is the actual agenda of this meeting, and not the one reported by the officialdom? What decisions were taken as a result of the current talks? This remains unknown, just as it was during Lukashenka's other visits.
For example, it can be judged from indirect indications that the main issue of Lukashenka's previous visit to Putin (St. Petersburg, July 23-25) was the fate of the Wagner PMC. As is known, this fate was radically resolved. The Wagner camp near Asipovichy is being shut down. The issue can be considered closed.
In general, the alliance between Belarus and Russia is increasingly turning into a personal union, a personal alliance of Lukashenka and Putin. A union of rulers, as in the Middle Ages. Negotiations take place most often in secret. Not only the peoples, but also the state institutions and their heads are not aware of what the leaders agree on.
Therefore, the media and experts have to comment only on what Lukashenka and Putin say at the beginning of the meeting, in the presence of journalists, in front of TV cameras.
Last year the main topic of these speeches was the war against Ukraine. Lukashenka was particularly active, denouncing Ukraine and the West in every possible way, admiring the actions of Russia and Putin.
This year, the topic of war has been touched upon in one way or another during the meetings, but in a marginal, almost optional way. For example, now it was only addressed in the form of answers to journalists' questions.
This happens because the topic of war is no longer popular in the society of both Russia and Belarus. Therefore, they decided once again not to rub salt into wounds, to talk as little as possible about the painful things, to pretend that the bloody events in Ukraine are something secondary, not worthy of special attention.
After all, lately the negative vector for the two allies has begun to manifest itself even at the symbolic level. Just recently, the Russian landing ship 'Minsk' was shot down in the Black Sea. Let me remind you that last year the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet 'Moskva' sank. A trend, indeed.
Speaking of answering questions. Usually, after negotiations, the leaders rarely come out to journalists. This happens only when the Kremlin considers it important to say something. That's when journalists appear with questions prepared in advance. Usually, representatives of the state media of Russia and Belarus ask both leaders one question each. As a rule, they ask about the outcome of the negotiations.
This time the tradition was broken. There were three questions, and all of them were asked by Russian journalists. They were addressed only to Putin, Lukashenka was only nodding in agreement. And finally, they did not touch upon Belarusian-Russian relations in any way, but were mainly focused on Russia's conflict against Ukraine and the West.
This shows, firstly, that the topic of relations with Belarus is not at the top of the Kremlin's agenda today. Secondly, there was some demonstrative neglect of Lukashenka, as if he was not even in the hall. The Russian side was solving its informational tasks, while the presence of the Belarusian ruler was used as an excuse for their realization.
It is worth paying attention to Putin's statement that Ukraine will have to dance not its own dance of "Gopak", but Russian dances of "Barynya" or "Kazachok". Thus admitting that the goal of the war is not "denazification" but Russification.
And Lukashenka's role during the public part of the negotiations was to radiate positivity and optimism on all issues. Everything is going well, but it will be even better. Everything is great in the economy, sanctions are not scary, even on the contrary, they have helped to use own reserves, the people of Russia support the government, as evidenced by the results of local elections.
And everything is fine even in foreign policy, in Lukashenka's opinion. However, the examples he gave to illustrate this thesis are, to put it mildly, not convincing. The fact that Moscow has to boast of its alliance with North Korea (an absolute world pariah) and resort to its help says a lot about the situation in which Russia finds itself.
In turn, Lukashenka said he intended to tell his Russian counterpart about cooperation with the countries of the African continent, especially in view of the recent visit of the president of Equatorial Guinea to Belarus. "A very famous person. And an advanced man," the Belarusian ruler noted. One can have no doubt that Putin was very interested in listening to Lukashenka's impression of the "advanced" African politician.