One Step Left Before Closure Of Border Between Belarus And EU
- RUSLAN SHOSHYN, BELSAT
- 6.08.2023, 20:10
Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga will do it without hesitation.
The Yalu River, on the border between China and North Korea, is the only place where people have any chance of escaping Kim's land. If the North Korean border guards catch someone there, they will be sent to a labor camp at best. And if they manage to get across the river to China, they may be able to get from there to a third country. It’s really difficult, but that's the North Korean reality. It seems that Aliaksandr Lukashenka is preparing such a fate for Belarus.
The border with Ukraine is closed because of the war, and Lukashenka is an accomplice in the aggression of Putin's Russia. Lithuania closes regular border crossings. There is only one crossing on the border with Poland through which Belarusians can still travel to the free world. It cannot be ruled out that the situation may change in the near future. For the worse.
Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kamiński said a few days ago that Poland, Lithuania and Latvia could close all border crossings with Belarus. They delivered a clear message to Lukashenka: the next provocations on the border with the EU member states will end in the complete isolation of Belarus.
Is it possible? Yes, it’s quite possible, but only in the case of a serious aggravation on the borders of Belarus with its Western neighbours. Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga will not falter if, for example, a provocation involving the Wagnerites takes place on the border with Poland, Lithuania or Latvia. It is also impossible to exclude the closure of the EU borders in the event of another Russian invasion of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.
Obviously, the patience of the authorities in Warsaw is running out, especially after the recent violation of Polish airspace by Belarusian helicopters. The border is strengthened with additional military and police forces. Most importantly, Lukashenka's Belarus has become such a toxic topic in Poland that most Poles will support closing the border. 54% of the Poles supported the complete closure of the border In March. This was before the Wagnerites appeared in Belarus, before the violation of the airspace. Therefore, politicians in Warsaw are one step away from making such a decision.
The next provocations of the regime can have catastrophic consequences for thousands of Belarusians who continue to travel to the EU (for work and study). The route to the free world will be expensive and much longer. It will run through third countries that have not closed their airports to Russian and Belarusian aircraft. Also, the terms are not clear and it’s likely that the Belarusians would have to live in such a situation for months or years. It will be difficult for Warsaw to open the border. Warsaw will open the borders only in case of major concessions from the regime.
What are the consequences for Minsk of closing the border? Several billion losses from discontinued trade relations (yes, Belarus still trades with the EU). The transition to complete dependence on Chinese suppliers (which will not be able to export, for example, Western-brand products made in China), a shortage of goods and electronics from European manufacturers. There will be a shortage of European cars, which are still “imported from Germany”. Lukashenka will also face another problem. A crisis will begin in relations with such Central Asian countries as Kazakhstan, whose foreign trade depends on transit through the territory of Belarus. This could lead to an even greater split between the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union.
Ruslan Shoshyn, Belsat