Meduza: Kremlin Has Decided Who Will Run In The 2024 Presidential Election
- 28.08.2023, 18:37
Age is the main selection criterion for candidates.
The political bloc of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, led by Sergei Kiriyenko, has decided on "sparring partners" who will "compete" with Vladimir Putin in the 2024 Russian presidential election. According to two Meduza sources close to the Kremlin, age was one of the main selection criteria. The registered candidates must not include politicians under the age of 50. Such candidates could make Russians think that the 70-year-old Putin is “no longer the man who came to power with a firm hand,” according to presidential officials.
At the moment, the Presidential Administration expects that, in addition to Putin, representatives of three parliamentary parties will also run in the elections: the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) and the New People political party (the leader of the A Just Russia political party, Sergei Mironov, announced that his party will not put forward any candidate and will support Vladimir Putin). The Kremlin sees Gennady Zyuganov as a candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. “No dark horses like [promoted by the communists in 2018 businessman Pavel] Grudinin. Zyuganov is familiar to the president, he has a high status as a party leader and every voter knows him. At the same time, he has a limit - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has a solid electorate and will not attract new voters,” explained one of Meduza’s sources close to the Presidential Administration.
Zyuganov gained 17% of votes in the 2008 elections and 18% in 2012. Such stability of the rating is important for the Kremlin - it is planned that Putin will score a "record result" in the upcoming elections. The sitting president must receive more than 80% of the vote with a turnout of more than 70%. Hypothetically, the repetition of the story with Grudinin may prevent this. Then the candidate was approved by the Kremlin but he began to suddenly gain ratings and the Presidential Administration had to wage a full-fledged black PR campaign against him. “There will be no such excesses with the bored Zyuganov,” Meduza’s source close to the Presidential Administration is sure. Zyuganov's trust rating is 3% according to the Levada Center, and the rating of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is 10.2% according to the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) VCIOM.
The Kremlin is planning that the LDPR will put forward party leader Leonid Slutsky. According to a source close to the Presidential Administration, Slutsky wants to participate in the elections, "because he loves PR." A source close to the LDPR’s leadership confirmed this information and added that Slutsky "likes to light up in public," and intends to "increase personal fame." For the same purpose, according to the source, Slutsky is now leading the party lists in regional elections: “His photo is on the front pages of party newspapers, and there will also be more TV debates during the presidential elections.”
A source close to the Kremlin’s political bloc described the situation with Slutsky as follows: “He is quite suitable - a serious man, in office, in a suit jacket. No one will say that this is just a filler. But Slutsky's personal rating is low, and he is not so good as a public politician..."
Everything is more complicated with the candidate from the New People political party (NP). The Kremlin would like the party to put forward its chairman, businessman Alexei Nechaev. “The logic is the same as with Slutsky: a serious man in a suit jacket, a fine figure of a man. He is also little-known and not very charismatic. So that his rating will not rise extremely high and does not threaten KPI against Putin,” explained one of Meduza’s sources close to the Presidential Administration.
However, this plan has not yet been agreed with Nechaev personally. According to two Meduza sources close to the Kremlin, he understands that “they won’t let him earn a lot of interest, and he doesn’t want to get crumbs and become Lesha 2%.”
“Nechaev wants the NP to reach at least third place in the elections to the State Duma in 2026. He thinks that his low result in the presidential election will interfere with this goal,” Meduza’s source close to the PA explained.
According to Meduza's information, Nechaev is suggesting Deputy Speaker of the State Duma Vladislav Davankov, who is currently running for mayor of Moscow, instead of himself. However, the PA is not satisfied with this candidacy. The Kremlin continues to insist on the participation of Nechaev, although Davankov is quite loyal to the system politician:
It's a matter of age. Davankov is 39 years old, he loves PR, he is a good public speaker. It is clear that he will not receive a lot of votes, but a young and active candidate can make the voter think about the age of the president. It will be an unfavourable contrast. This is not about the result [of Putin] in the elections, but about the prospect of a couple of years, when people will start thinking that Putin, of course, did a great job, but the time for someone younger is coming. The participation of young candidates can trigger such thoughts.
According to the Russian Field’s survey conducted in May this year, age is the third most popular answer to the question of what Russians "dislike" in the sitting president - only Putin's "gentleness" (it’s unclear what "gentleness" they are talking about) and his inattention to the internal affairs of the country they dislike more.
Several regional officials and the United Russia political party interviewed by Meduza confirmed that over the past few years, Russians have indeed begun to worry about Putin's age. “The time to think about a successor and to take a break may have come and a fresh approach is needed” one of the high-ranking regional officials of the United Russia lists the opinions of the residents.
Officials themselves also began to treat Putin differently after his 70th birthday. If Meduza’s sources used to call the sitting president “First”, “Chief”, “Supreme” or “Dad”, now they most often call him “grandfather”. One of the sources close to the Kremlin, when asked about the reasons for this, answered this way: “Well, there is nothing special in the word ‘grandfather’, without negativity. That's his age."