Battle For Southern Ukraine Reaching Its Climax: Russian Front On Verge Of Collapse

• 13.07.2023, 7:37

The main direction of the AFU breakthrough is named.

Stability on the front given the Ukrainian counter-offensive is an illusion. In fact, very important events are taking place there now. The conditions of Russia's future defeat, which may come very soon, are being set out.

Russian historian, politician Dmitry Chernyshevsky said so.

"There is extremely interesting news from the front, which indicates that the decisive battle of the war near Zaporizhzhia seems to be entering its crucial phase".

"Russia has moved almost the entire East group of troops to the South of Ukraine. This may indicate the fragility of the Russian defence in this area," analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War wrote. The only reserve that remains in the East group is the 29th Army, the smallest in the Eastern Military District (EMD). The transfer of reserves means that the front cannot hold the onslaught of Ukrainian troops with its own forces... The Russian defence in this direction is fragile. If the AFU is able to break through the Russian defence and the Russian forces do not receive significant support from operational reserves, the south of Ukraine will probably be liberated. The Russians will have to retreat," Chernyshevsky said.

He also specified that retreating to distant frontiers is a very complicated military manoeuvre that the Russian army may not be able to do. There is a high probability of a grandiose collapse of the front.

The question of reserves, Chernyshevsky emphasised, is the key issue in the current battle of attrition. The side that exhausts them the fastest is doomed to defeat. And, judging by the latest information, it will be the Russian Federation.

"An army standing in defence in prepared positions usually has an advantage... Ukraine had to break through all the fortified defence lines by feet of its infantry. And it was with great surprise that Western analysts noticed by the end of the first month of the offensive that the small mobile group tactics employed by Ukraine, combined with the well-oiled interaction of these groups with artillery, resulted in Russia suffering greater losses in defence than Ukraine did in the offensive... Russia is losing about 30% more equipment than Ukraine. Apparently, the same ratio is true of men. And since the Russian army does not have numerical superiority, the defeat of the Russian Armed Forces became inevitable. The Russian command was forced to throw operational reserves into the battle. By pulling most of its armies to the southern direction, it showed that the battle had entered its climax... If these reserves are ground down, the blow of Ukraine's surviving reserve groups is capable of crushing the Russian front. And this collapse may turn out to be cascading and very powerful, and may not be limited to a breakthrough to the Sea of Azov," the Russian historian said.

He assured that the current stability of the front will not last long.

"The battle of attrition over the next few weeks may turn into a decisive battle, followed by the collapse of the Russian front... There is not much time left. The climax of the battle is near. The outcome of the war depends on the outcome of this battle. This is a real Kursk massacre in modern conditions. If Ukraine wins it, the war may quickly end with its complete victory... For the first time since the beginning of the Ukrainian offensive, it has become apparent that Ukraine does not simply own the initiative, but gains the upper hand. Strategically, the Russian command is losing ground," Chernyshevsky said.

The expert assured that the Russian military leadership understands this fact perfectly well. The feverish redeployment of unprepared forces to Crimea is proof of that. Russian commanders are waiting for the collapse of the front and are trying to prevent the breakthrough of the AFU to the peninsula in this way.

"They are nervous, they realise that soon everything will burst and the Ukrainian wave will go all the way to Crimea... They really feel the very breath of defeat. The battle near Zaporizhzhia is entering a decisive stage," stated the Russian historian.