‘Another Russian Leak Shows Uncover Minds Of Belarusian Business Professionals’
- 26.04.2023, 17:53
The only chance for business professionals is the collapse of the Lukashenka regime.
Recently, already the second conversation between representatives of the Russian elite leaked online. They are criticizing the authorities. Are there such talks among Belarusian business professionals and officials?
The Charter97.org website talked about this with Anatol Kotau, a former employee of the Lukashenka's administration, who sided with the Belarusian people in 2020.
– Here we can talk about unrest among the Belarusian business circles. Belarusian officials have mostly come to terms with the situation and, let's say, expect new and unpleasant "surprises" every day. There is a feeling that I would call "fatalism".
When talking about business - it's another matter. The recent Russian leak reflects the nature of what is going on in the minds of Belarusian business professionals. It is important to note here that there are several types of business in Belarus. If we are talking about large companies, then these are either those who were “let to support business”, such as artificially grown oligarchs, or those who created the companies from scratch, but at some point realized that they could not refuse to cooperate with the regime because of different circumstances.
Of course, those who were let to "support business" are in a completely dependent situation. "Today they again give some strange and almost impossible assignment. Actually, the money is not ours really. So, we will fulfil it," the maximum that can come to their mind.
The business professionals who created everything themselves from scratch are talking the same as the Russian elite. Of course, they talk like that more often somewhere abroad for security reasons. In general, Russian businessmen also do not talk much among themselves on such topics within the country.
Everyone is well aware that the business climate in the country is not improving, but only getting worse. How to determine the moment when you can still leave, saving the maximum funds, is the most difficult task. It especially concerns production-related business. It is difficult to sell assets within the country now, not to mention the search for foreign investors.
In general, everyone is thinking about how to suffer fewer losses. How to take your family out more carefully and safely, to go somewhere leaving for yourself a chance to return to the country in some foreseeable future.
– Does it really mean that Belarusian business professionals are under constant stress?
– Business is more sensitive to changes in legislation, policy, and rhetoric of the regime. After all, behind every such word or action, the sound of a cash register is heard: “Yeah, this game will cost us 10 million, and one more call to fix something or to donate will cost a million, and because of this we will lose two million.”
They count money, trying to determine the best moment to leave with the least losses, which in such a small country as Belarus is even more difficult than in Russia.
– What is Belarus losing due to the massive outflow of business professionals from the country?
– Even official statistics, very unclear and peculiar, show that the former locomotive, the IT sector, is taking the GDP down in the first quarter of 2023. There are negative consequences of the fact that large companies, including serious Belarusian brands, have begun to relocate. Accordingly, the export of HTP [Belarus Hi-Tech Park - Ed.] services is suffering. The monthly departure from the country of thousands of IT specialists began to really affect it.
New measures to “support the HTP” will not reverse this process, but, on the contrary, will accelerate it.
It is clear that those IT companies that started planning their relocation in 2021 are leaving now. For example, a large EPAM company relocates its offices abroad in Lithuania and even South America, they have a large range of countries. The processes that began two years ago are gaining momentum. It's irreversible now.
For a year and a half, they tried not to notice them, and now all these processes are reaching the final point. On the one hand, they upset the regime, and on the other hand, they refute the fact that it is easy for IT companies to move. No. This is a very serious business process. If you count money and try to get out with the least losses. It's not so quick and easy.
It's even more complicated for the Belarusians who have invested money in production. Moreover, there exist policies and practices that do not allow closing enterprises. They have to work, it is necessary to provide employment, to pay some kind of salary to employees. Although it doesn't make sense, people are forced to maintain the appearance of economic activity. There are no prospects for this.
Therefore, medium-sized and large business professionals talk about such things that we heard in recent leaks. Especially those who created a business from scratch. They are talking about it all the time. This existed even before 2020. Everything escalates during a crisis.
On the other hand, since 2020, the understanding is growing every month that there are simply no good prospects for getting out of the situation like: “We'll survive. Everything will be fine.”
– So, is there any light in this darkness?
– Everyone understands perfectly well that there is the only possible light in this darkness: major changes within the country and the collapse of the Lukashenka regime. Another thing is that you need to understand that everyone, especially business professionals, is quite seriously divided. Everyone has a feeling of loneliness, which gives rise to a feeling of helplessness. People are making plans to save themselves.
I would also like to note that there are fewer and fewer opportunities for Belarusian companies to leave the country, especially after the start of the war. The origin of Belarusian funds raises more and more questions abroad.