Estonian Intelligence Announces Date Of AFU Counteroffensive

• 22.04.2023, 0:55

The success of the offensive will depend on just one factor.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive could begin as early as May 9, but everything would depend on the situation at the front and the weather, said Colonel Margo Grosberg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) intelligence center, writes ERR.ee.

At a briefing on April 21, Grosberg noted that, according to intelligence observation, the fighting from both the Ukraine and the Russian side has decreased, as both armies are conserving ammunition.

Grosberg does not expect any changes next week either. The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may begin on May 9, the military continued, although the planning of “symbolic” dates is more typical of Russia's behavior.

“As for May 9, I stress that Ukraine is a very diverse region, especially northeastern and southern Ukraine, where a lot depends on the weather. This week it has been raining and next week it will also rain. If it goes on like this for another three weeks, then these dates will become irrelevant,” he said.

According to Grosberg, the Russians are also intensively preparing for a possible offensive, especially in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, with defensive structures being built in several different directions.

According to the colonel, which Ukrainian units will go on the counterattack is not the most important issue. The main thing is the synchronization of troops before the start of a major operation, because this is the most important nuance of strategic success. As an example, he cited Russia, which was never able to get its ground and air forces to act together, which is partly due to the very good work of Ukrainian air defense — Russia failed to destroy it.