Big AFU Counteroffensive, End Of War: Major Forecasts
- 10.04.2023, 14:58
The Ukrainian troops' offensive is expected in the coming weeks.
The Ukrainian leadership is making ambitious forecasts about the liberation of the occupied territories and the end of the war amid preparations for the counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov and military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov have announced an active offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They do not rule out that the war will end with Ukraine's victory this year.
Kyiv's Western allies, in particular representatives of the Pentagon, also make predictions about the counter-offensive.
TSN.ua has collected key statements and forecasts regarding the development of military operations in Ukraine.
Will the War End this Year?
President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that there are not many steps left before victory, but everything depends on Western aid to Ukraine.
"Are there many steps remaining before it (victory - ed.)? No. It is only necessary not to stop in solidarity. When the battle requires artillery, it should be provided. When victory needs tanks, their rumble must be heard on the front line. When independence needs air, no attention should be paid to how Russia reacts to us having planes," Zelensky said.
Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov believes that Ukraine will be able to liberate all its territories very soon and end the war by the end of 2023. The end of the war, he said, should consist of Russia withdrawing all troops and paying reparations.
"I think this war will end soon. Of course, I wish it had never started, but personally I believe in this year as the year of victory," Reznikov said.
Mykhaylo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, notes that the war will continue until Ukraine liberates all the territories, including Crimea and Donbas. He predicts that the AFU will enter the peninsula within six months.
"We will definitely, in a very short time, in terms of history it is very little - six months, or five months, or seven months, we will be in Crimea. That may be too optimistic, but it is optimism, mathematically verified," he is convinced.
The US is more restrained in its forecasts.
The head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, considers the likelihood that Ukraine will succeed in pushing all Russian forces off its territory this year to be low.
"I don't think it will happen anytime soon this year. Zelensky has repeatedly made public statements that Ukraine's goal is to kick every Russian out of occupied Ukrainian territory. But this is a big task. A very, very difficult military task," Milley noted.
US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines warned in March that Russian President Vladimir Putin, disillusioned about a quick victory in Ukraine, was seeking to drag out the war for years. She said Putin hopes that continued aggression will "increase the likelihood of achieving strategic objectives".
Daniel Rice, adviser to the Ukrainian army's commander-in-chief and president of the American University in Kyiv, notes that Ukraine "hopes for a short war, but is preparing for a long one".
Prospects for a Spring Counteroffensive
The Ukrainian command is pinning great hopes on a counter-offensive by the AFU, preparations for which have been continuing in recent months.
In particular, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry, Kyrylo Budanov, expressed the opinion in an interview with the US media that "the decisive battle between Russia and Ukraine will be this spring and will be the last before this war is over."
According to the head of military intelligence, it is not only about the east (Donetsk and Luhansk regions) and the south of Ukraine - active battles are expected "absolutely everywhere". Budanov added that Russia is not ready for a prolonged war now, although it is demonstratively demonstrating the opposite.
Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said that the occupiers were already turning to defence in anticipation of a counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In his opinion, this means that the Russians "have already lost this war". Reznikov also said that the counter-offensive should start during April-May and is planned "in several directions".
At the same time, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that the expected counteroffensive should not be perceived as a decisive battle in the war because it may not lead to the complete liberation of Ukrainian territory.
For her part, on April 3, Julianne Smith, the US permanent representative to NATO, did not rule out that "the Ukrainians will advance or launch their own spring offensive in the coming weeks". Julianne Smith added that Russia is also now trying to advance, but the occupiers are likely to have little success.
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said on March 28 that Ukraine could conduct a successful counteroffensive in the spring, taking advantage of the exhaustion of the Russian army and Western arms deliveries. The Pentagon says it is in close contact with the Ukrainian military leadership and assures that Ukraine has every possibility for a counteroffensive.
Ukraine and the West Demoralise Occupiers
Military expert Oleksandr Musiyenko believes the statements of the Ukrainian leadership and Western allies about the preparation of a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces are part of an information war to demoralize the occupiers.
"But under pressure that there will be an offensive by Ukrainian troops, with a demonstration of confidence, it may happen that at the first attempts of successful attacks by Ukrainian forces, the Russian rear will start to 'crumble'. This is a psychological factor," Musiyenko explained.
Military expert Pyotr Chernik suggested that the issue of a counteroffensive in the media space was "highly overheated".
"A counter-offensive will be inevitable and obligatory. And as for when, how and under what circumstances, by what forces and means and in what directions, we should really leave that in a kind of silence and leave it to our military. Only they have the right to talk about it and to implement it," says the expert.
At the same time, Chernik notes that Ukraine has enormously increased its military potential to liberate all its territories