Valer Karbalevich: Lukashenka Lost This Episode Of War
- 5.03.2023, 11:47
The game of silence turned into a resounding failure.
The story of the attack on the Russian A-50 long-range aimer jet at the Machulishchy military airfield near Minsk became not only an episode of a real war, but also an element of an information war, writes political scientist Valer Karbalevich.
And the regime lost this episode of the information war.
The authorities' long silence is understandable. True information about the incident in Machulishchy is very unfavorable for the regime. For several reasons.
1. The scandal surrounding the attack on the plane destroys the official mythology of Belarusian stability. Like, there are some cataclysms all over the world, there is a war in Ukraine, in Europe people are dying of hunger and cold, and here is an island of peace, order and security. And here is such a surprise. You can’t say that something accidentally flew across the border there. Here there was an attack on strategic military infrastructure located near the capital of the state.
2. Lukashenka has said many times that the West is trying to drag Belarus into the war, but he would not allow this, he guarantees peace; while he is in power, Belarusians can sleep peacefully. And then it turns out that the war has reached here.
3. The attack on the airfield took place against the backdrop of endless military exercises, readiness checks, regular troop movements to and from the borders, and various mobilization activities. Territorial defense, people's militia were formed, employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations were given pistols, the task was to mobilize hunters, fishermen, and foresters for defense purposes.
This has been going on for a whole year since the beginning of the war. Almost every two weeks, Lukashenka held meetings with the security forces. And what is the result of all this militaristic fever? At a critical moment, the strategic military facility turned out to be defenseless. And where was the entire air defense system?
4. Taking into account the fact that Belarusian partisans took responsibility for the attack on the airfield, it turns out that the authorities were unable to suppress the resistance. And this despite the total terror against any dissent. It turns out that the regime was never able to take control of society.
5. Finally, Moscow can ask unpleasant questions. Lukashenka assured the Kremlin many times that nothing threatens the ally's troops on Belarusian territory, that Belarus is a reliable shield for Russia from Western adversaries. And he explained the reluctance to send his troops to Ukraine by the need to close the western border of the "union state". And now it turns out that the shield is full of holes.
In short, the authorities initially decided to play silent. However, it proved to be a losing position. In the information war, it is very important to shoot first. Those who managed to put forward their own version of the event earlier are on horseback. This version is then replicated by other media. In the information age, being four days late to respond to an important event around which passions are raging is a resounding failure.