Rapprochement Of Outcasts
- 14.03.2023, 9:47
What is behind the Iranian tour of the Belarusian dictator?
The logic of geopolitical positioning became the impetus for the resuscitation of active cooperation between Belarus and Iran. And not only in connection with the war in Ukraine.
The heyday in Belarusian-Iranian relations fell on the period of the reign of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2013). Lukashenka visited Tehran in 1998 and 2006; the Iranian president was on visits to Belarus in 2004 and 2007.
That cooperation was based on a rather pragmatic approach on the part of the official Minsk. Lukashenka actively sought and found contacts with international outcasts, enemies of the US, generous with anti-imperialist rhetoric and rich in petrodollars. Then the active cooperation of Belarus with Iran and Venezuela began. After all, these countries willingly sponsored ideologically close regimes and political movements. This is what they counted on.
The exchange of visits, statements of political support for each other, and talk of creating some kind of anti-American axis were accompanied by the development of joint economic projects. However, these projects were based mainly not on economic interest and commercial calculation, but on political agreements. The economy fell under political expediency.
Under a noisy propaganda veil, projects began. But after a while it turned out that someone had to pay for friendship. They started counting money. And then it turned out that no one had done any serious economic calculations. And all these political agreements had no real economic basis.
Therefore, the inflated bubbles began to burst. Everyone is well aware of the collapse of the Venezuelan project. Something similar happened in the Belarusian-Iranian relations. At first, the adventure with the construction of a plant near Minsk for the production of Iranian Samand cars failed, since there was no demand for these cars. The joint oil production project at the Iranian Jofeir field also died after that.
After the departure of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Belarusian-Iranian cooperation slowed down. Summit meetings took place only at summits.
Iran has been living under a tough sanctions regime for many years. Tougher than the one in which Belarus now finds itself. After all, there are secondary sanctions. It is clear that Belarus was still afraid to enter into active economic cooperation with Iran, as there was a risk of falling under these secondary Western sanctions.
But now, apparently, a certain resuscitation of the Belarusian-Iranian union is taking place. The impetus for this new stage was given by Lukashenka's meeting with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in September 2022 in Samarkand on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit. In October 2022, Foreign Minister of Belarus Uladzimir Makei visited Iran and presented Belarusian proposals to Tehran. Then, in November of the same year, Prime Minister of Belarus Raman Halouchanka went to Tehran. And now Lukashenka's visit.
What was the impetus for the resuscitation of active cooperation? I think the logic of geopolitical positioning, and not only in connection with the war in Ukraine. I want to remind you that last year Iran experienced mass public protests, which the local authorities brutally suppressed (there are dead, sentenced to death), declaring them a conspiracy to the West. Doesn't it remind you of anything?
And the war in Ukraine has led to a deep split in the world. Lukashenka complained a couple of times that Belarus and Russia together oppose 52 countries that support Ukraine. In 2022, at the CSTO and SCO summits, he called in every possible way to reorient the activities of these organizations in an anti-Western direction. These efforts, however, were not very successful.
Over time, it became clear that there is active cooperation between the Russian Federation and Iran in the military sphere. Iranian drones are massively used by Russia in the war with Ukraine. That is, Iran becomes a de facto ally of the Russian Federation. And Belarus does not look so lonely against this background. And it also promotes rapprochement. Lukashenka hopes to create a union of Belarus, Russia and Iran.
And the fact that Iran is under tough sanctions is of little concern to Minsk now. After all, Belarus itself found itself in a similar situation. Now there is nothing to be afraid of. The official Minsk has already lost everything that could be lost. Even in the conditions of international isolation, there is little choice for cooperation.
Trade between countries is rather volatile. Last year, the trade turnover between the countries amounted to $100 million, in 2021 - $33 million, and in 2020 only about $20 million.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, during his talks with Lukashenka, clearly outlined one direction: “Iran is ready to share with Belarus its experience in resisting sanctions”. Here both “brothers in misfortune” can successfully help each other.
Cooperation in the military-industrial complex is highly possible. Belarus can join active cooperation in the military-industrial complex of Russia and Iran. Ukrainian intelligence reported that the organization of the technological process for assembling reactive shells of 122 mm, 220 mm and 300 mm calibers on the territory of Belarus was on the agenda.
The war in Ukraine continues, with no end in sight. Russia will need a lot of shells. And selling them to the Russian Federation will become quite a profitable business.
Joint projects of Belarus with Iran and China are very likely. It is well known about the Belarusian-Chinese cooperation in the production of missile technology (“Polonaise”). Iran is now very interested in this.
But there is one nuance. Close cooperation between the official Minsk and the United Arab Emirates is unlikely to please Tehran. After all, all the Sunni monarchies on the Arabian Peninsula are longtime enemies of Shiite Iran.
Valer Karbalevich, Radio Svaboda