Svitan: Enemy Set Up Trap For Ukrainian Forces, But Fell Into It Himself
- 17.11.2023, 15:59
A military expert told what was happening at the front.
Ukrainian defense forces continue to hold positions on the eastern front, repelling cannon fodder ramparts near Avdiivka and in other areas. And on the left bank of the Kherson region, naive Russians are trying to draw our troops into a trap.
Reserve Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Roman Svitan spoke in more detail about the situation on the main sectors of the front on Apostrophe TV.
The big picture
After our summer offensive along the eastern and southern fronts, the Ukrainian Armed Forces occupied the best positions for defense in the autumn-winter period, mainly the heights. So that we are in a good position during the rainfall regime. And the Russians of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were thrown into the lowlands almost everywhere — along the southern, Donetsk and Luhansk fronts. And the Russians have a disadvantageous position — they are knee-deep in water, and it is impossible to throw water out of the trenches. But the Russians have one option — to go to heights, that is, to retreat several kilometers due to the weather, in some positions it is dozens of kilometers.
Therefore, the Russians are trying in every possible way to regain the positions they have lost. And they understand perfectly well that they actually no longer have time for this. Actually, this is why along the entire eastern front line — this is approximately 200 km of the front from Vuhledar to Kupyansk — Russian counterattacks are now underway, mainly with the help of cannon fodder. In the eastern direction, equipment is no longer used much, due to the fact that black soil absorbs any equipment.
Battles near Avdiivka
Now the Ukrainian Armed Forces use the railway from Ocheretyne to Avdiivka as a cut-off line. The Russians approached it from the northeast. The distance between this road and the Coke and Chemical Plant is more than one kilometer. And this territory of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is used as a springboard for the destruction of enemy personnel. There is no way to bypass this section from the railway to the Coke and Chemical Plant except to walk along it, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces use this. In the plant area there are Ukrainian mortar batteries, and in the area of Ocheretyne and Avdiivka there is already artillery that is covering this area, and it would be certain death for the Russians to cross it. They are losing tens, if not hundreds of people on this bridgehead.
Second episode. They are trying to bypass the Coke and Chemical Plant to the north, trying to bypass the railway towards Stepove and Berdychi. They have the opportunity there to somehow go through the plantings. But nevertheless, this area is also under attack from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ artillery.
But the Coke and Chemical Plant itself is used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as a gray zone. We didn’t dig in there either, since the line of defense itself did not include the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, which worked until the full-scale offensive of the Russians. And some technological cycles are still preserved there, so the plant is quite dangerous to be in. Therefore, the plant is still used as a gray zone under the full control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
That is, Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, which still runs technological cycles, is a time bomb. A certain part of the technical staff is still at the plant. There is a fairly good shelter there, and the technological levels go deep underground. Therefore, troops will not go there and be based there, realizing that a good shelling will turn the Coke Plant into a large mass grave.
Left bank of Kherson region
In order to avoid falling into such a trap as the Russians did last year on the right bank of the Dnipro, the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot yet transfer heavy equipment to the left bank. When making a decision to create a bridgehead, you must clearly understand the mechanism of further movement. And if there are not enough reserves for further movement to the Crimea, then it is dangerous to create a bridgehead with a large number of equipment and people.
Therefore, the decision to create a large bridgehead will depend on the availability of forces and means and reserves for movement to the Crimea. And this is the best option, because when moving to the Crimea, a very large part of the territory is freed up.
Let’s say, if we move from the same Oleshky to Skadovsk, then the Russians will immediately simply run away from the Kinburn Spit, because it will be a cruel mouse trap.
The general direction of the attack from the left bank is towards Armyansk. That is, access to the Crimea. Only in this case does it make sense to create a large bridgehead on the left bank.