Svitan: It’s Possible To Clear Kinburn Spit Can Of Invaders Without Single Shot

• 15.11.2023, 11:38

The enemy will flee, fearing the cauldron.

The leadership of the Ukrainian army announced an offensive operation in the Kinburn Spit area and did not rule out the liberation of this territory shortly. But the paradox is that this goal can be achieved without firing a single shot and without direct combat with enemy forces. If the Ukrainian forces can cut off the occupation group along the line from Kherson to Skadovsk, the enemy will flee, fearing the cauldron.

As for the three hottest directions on the front – Avdiivka, Kupiansk and Marinka – the enemy will continue to storm these areas, regardless of losses. The only thing that can stop them – the rains.

Military expert Roman Svitan, a pilot-instructor and reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, made this forecast in an exclusive interview with OBOZ.UA

– Major General Dmytro Marchenko, in an interview with Yanina Sokolova, stated that the Kinburn Spit is included in the offensive action plan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. If everything goes according to plan, control may soon be established over it. In your opinion, is it possible to talk about the opening of a new front by the Ukrainian army in the south of our country to begin the de-occupation of Crimea from there? Is it real?

– The front appeared after the Russians left the right bank. The Dnipro River is already being used as a front line. But as a strategic direction of offensive action - yes. This became obvious after the Ukrainian troops started expanding the bridgeheads on the left bank.

However, it’s still possible to liberate the Kinburn Spit without direct combat. The fact is that the movement of our troops even from near Kherson towards the, for example, Skadovsk will cut off the Kinburn Spit, and the Russians will leave from there.

As soon as serious advances of Ukrainian troops in the Kherson region to the left bank begin, the Russians will leave the Kinburn Spit on their own. Otherwise, they will end up in the cauldron. I think, based on the disposition that now exists on the left bank, it is convenient for them to retreat approximately to the level of Kherson-Skadovsk. There is a road along which it will be convenient for them to retreat. That’s what they most likely will do.

This is approximately the third line of defence of the Russians, which they made before blowing up the dam of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. They figured out the possible level of water after the explosion and organized a line of defence along the borders of this supposed shore. It's full of concrete.

Therefore, we can free the Kinburn Spit without firing a single shell in its direction. The Russians will simply leave thanks to the skillful and correct tactical actions of our troops.

– So, in fact, ATACMS and other long-range missiles are not needed there?

– Positive. The movement of our troops from Kherson to Skadovsk will force the Russians to withdraw from the Kinburn Spit.

– What are the prospects for consolidating the Defence Forces on the left bank of the Dnipro River, particularly, under the current weather?

– The weather will not have much influence. The fact is that we are unlikely to transfer heavy weapons to the left bank. This is currently a useless action. It would be better to use small tactical groups, up to a company or less, for counterattacks, attacks, and active defence on the left bank. That is, do not waste or force.

We can’t waste it. As soon as we dig in on the left bank, the Russians will begin to fire at the deployment sites with adjustable aerial bombs. They can do this, and so far we have nothing to oppose it.

Therefore, only an active defence, constant movement, and dispersal along the left bank. This saves our troops from attacks by missiles and guided aerial bombs.

I think the density of our troops will increase, for example, one company will be deployed to the left bank daily. Finally, we will push the Russians out to at least the third line, that is, 15 km from the Dnipro River. And then, if a decision is made to cross the Dnipro River – and this will depend on the number of forces and plans of the Commander-in-Chief – then we can talk about creating a river crossing.

First, it will be necessary to occupy about 15 km radius from one of the bridges, for example, near Oleshky and Antonivka Bridge, using active defence operations. Then the crossing will be built. It can be a pontoon or barge – it doesn’t matter. At least, it will be necessary to build an engineering structure that can be taken under the control of anti-aircraft missile systems and artillery from the right bank to cover it with an umbrella.

After that, it will be possible to transport heavy weapons like tanks weighing 40-60 tons. This will mean forcing the river and launching an offensive operation towards Crimea. Although the best direction of movement to Crimea would be movement in the direction from Skadovsk, that is, along the Black Sea coast, because the sea will cover our troops from the southern flank. This means that it will be possible to work only with the left flank, and this is much easier when the flank is also the front.

Thus, from the rear, we will be covered by the Dnipro River, from the right flank by the Black Sea, and it will be much easier to move, cutting off the Russians from the sea and moving towards Armiansk.

At the same time, the rains will not greatly hinder our progress. After all, there is clay-sandy soil. Of course, you can’t move there while it’s raining, but the water drains there very quickly. It’s better not to get stuck there because the water is close to the surface. But when the rain is over – on the second day you can already move on tracked vehicles. The wheeled vehicles will not go through, they will get stuck, but the tracked will succeed, and we have a lot of tracked armors.

Therefore, there is a prospect that even in the autumn-winter period, even in the rains, we will move towards Armiansk and Crimea.

– The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Zaluzhny, held talks with the head of the U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Brown. In particular, Zaluzhny said that the Avdiivka, Kupiansk and Marinka directions remain the hottest. “The situation is difficult, but controllable,” he said. Question about Avdiivka. We see that the enemy is trying to capture this settlement, despite huge losses. What is your prediction? How to stop them?

– Rains. This is not a coastal area or the Azov steppes, this is the Donetsk black soil. It will begin to rain and it will simply be impossible to move there. They will calm down when “the abysses of heaven are opened” [a reference to the biblical book of Genesis, which describes the World Flood. - Ed.]. They will move until that time, despite the losses in manpower and weapons.

They have a task ahead of them, contract soldiers have been gathered to complete this task. They are not mobilized troops, they are the so-called contract troops. These troops went to earn money by performing such tasks. Therefore, wave after wave, there will be constant attacks both in the Kupiansk direction and in the Donetsk direction – Marinka and Avdiivka.

But as soon as strong rains begin, everything will calm down. It will be impossible to move through the wet black soil. 80 centimetres of black soil with water is liquid concrete. This is just unreal.