National Bank Leaked

• 25.07.2022, 14:31

Hidden since March household inflation expectations were revealed.

Among the certainly important data that have recently disappeared from the public domain, there is household inflation expectations. The desire of the state to close public access to the data is very indicative. Nevertheless, the Nashy Hroshy (Our Money) Telegram channel writes that sooner or later information partially emerges.

Now, the National Bank has not published two results of quarterly monitoring of the household inflation expectations: for March and June 2022. Apparently, the data was hidden, as a period of explosive price growth began, and the indicators deteriorated greatly. Actually, there is generalised information in the report of the National Bank's management on the results of the first half of 2022 on ensuring macroeconomic stability. It seems, they decided to publish some of the data, because inflationary expectations have somewhat subsided. However, even these meagre pieces of information allow us to see part of the difficult macroeconomic picture.

Firstly, the population continues to feel high inflation. If in March perceived inflation was at the level of 15.2%, then in June the National Bank recorded the same indicator as "more than 17%". We can only guess how many of these "more" there were since there is no full report.

Secondly, the population's expectations regarding price growth in the next 12 months remain high. Although they slightly decreased in June compared to March: 15.7% against 16.7%. It is likely that this slight decline made the publication of the data possible. The authorities are proud of the 1% decline. What is the real picture of inflationary expectations from which we are being protected?