Military Analyst: Lukashenka Lost Control Over His Army
- 10.07.2022, 9:58
The dictator's military planning function is purely decorative.
Ukraine continues to discuss the statements made by Minsk. On July 5, Volodymyr Zelensky expressed the hope that Belarus would not be drawn into the war while adding:
"There are provocations still, there will be provocations... Belarus is under the threat to be involved. We can for our part say only one thing: we are preparing for this."
Later, Ukrainian intelligence announced the deployment of Russian military bases in Belarus. On July 9, the Ukrainian military reported mining 'dangerous areas' near the border with Belarus.
Serhiy Hrabsky, a military expert, a former employee of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine and a participant in peacekeeping operations in Kosovo and Iraq, shared his opinion on threats from Belarus in a comment to the ICTV channel.
Enemy May Want To Try Air Raids
"The process of preparing for a potential invasion has begun. It is quite difficult to predict whether this will definitely happen or whether it will be a ground invasion. However, I want to draw attention to the increase in the so-called enemy aviation grouping in this direction,” the expert noted.
According to him, launching missiles in the western regions of Ukraine is quite problematic. Therefore, Russian troops may try to change tactics:
"I think the enemy might want to try air raids this time. The prevailing targets are railway junctions: such as Kovel, Sarny, and Korosten. That is those nodes that, according to the enemy, provide the logistics of weapons and military equipment for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, it's not true."
There Is One Thing
Serhiy Hrabsky believes that the Ukrainian troops have quite effective Air Defence Forces, fortified with Western models of anti-aircraft systems. This will reduce the effectiveness of air raids, forcing Russian pilots to drop bombs from high altitudes without entering the air defence coverage area:
"The civilians will suffer the most. And this is the drama of the situation that can unfold in this direction."
Painful Experience Of Kyiv And Chernihiv
Speaking about the possibility of a land invasion from Belarus, the expert recalled that only a few roads lead to Ukraine from the north, including railway lines.
"Having the painful experience of Chernihiv and Kyiv, I have more and more doubts that the Russians will decide on such actions.”
Lukashenka’s Control Over Army
Serhiy Hrabsky is convinced that this has already happened, with his highest military ranks and special services education.
"All military exercises that were held in Belarus indicate that Lukashenka's function in military planning is purely decorative."