Ban On Cargo Transportation With EU: What Will Belarus Lose?
- 6.04.2022, 12:21
The European Union accounts for one fifth of the country's external trade turnover.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland call on the EU to completely block the transport of goods from Russia and Belarus.
"The ban on the carriage of goods by Russian and Belarusian vehicles and the entry of ships of the two countries into ports will have the greatest effect if adopted at the EU level," said Lithuanian Minister of Transport and Communications Marius Skuodis.
Such a measure may be taken in response to the participation of Belarus in the Russian aggression against Ukraine, Radio Svaboda reports.
How much will such a decision cost Belarus?
Belarus exports $10.5 billion worth of goods to the EU in a year
The EU is the second trading partner of Belarus after Russia. Exports to the EU countries last year amounted to $10.5 billion, imports — $8.3 billion, trade — $18.8 billion.
The EU accounts for one fifth of external trade.
The closure of the borders for goods by the EU, of course, does not mean a complete embargo on Belarusian goods, but it will still not work to export goods worth $10.5 billion through bypass routes. Leu Lvouski, a senior researcher at BEROC, believes this.
"This is not yet a full embargo, in this case it is an embargo for half of the borders. It will still be possible to trade through Kazakhstan, look for some gray channels. In general, the volume of sanctions is now high, if the borders are not closed, it will still be difficult, with closed borders it will be even more difficult. There will be no deliveries worth 10 billion a year anyway. It is difficult to find workarounds, now sanctions are imposed even by private companies that, due to toxicity, do not want to deal with Belarusian manufacturers," says Leu Lvouski.
Last year, Belarus provided $4.3 billion worth of transport services to other countries. A large share of this is occupied by transport services for the EU countries, Leu Lvouski says.
"The main threat is there for the export of services. The export of transport services previously amounted to about 7% of GDP. Nothing had to be done for this: China paid for delivering goods to Europe, and Europe paid for sending something to Russia. Closing the borders will hit the transport industry, which is already under attack. Air transportation is closed, rail transportation is not in the best condition, the railway is used for transshipment of the Russian military, the border with Ukraine is closed. Transportation by other transport is also in jeopardy, as the border capacity has been greatly reduced even without closing the borders," says Leu Lvouski.
At some border points, activists are protesting who do not let Belarusian trucks through, reminds Leu Lvouski.
How many Belarusians will be affected by the closure of cargo transportation from the EU?
293.3 thousand people work in the transport sector in Belarus, which is 6.8% of all employed in the economy. This is a profitable area. Net profit from the operation of transport for 2020 - 645 million rubles, profitability - 7.6%.
As a representative of one of the Belarusian companies involved in transportation said on condition of anonymity, problems for the sphere have already begun.
"Earlier, even before the political crisis, a truck crossed the border with the EU in half a day. Now it takes 5-6 days, both on the Lithuanian border and on the Polish one. As for the closure of the border, there will be detours: Turkey, ferries on the Black Sea. But this is a significant price increase. Also, the closure of the border does not cancel contracts between businesses, that is, obligations remain. Somehow it will have to go, but it is not clear how. It is not known what to expect," says the interlocutor.
Minus money from using toll roads
Another source of income from freight transportation is the toll road network, which is paid through the BelToll system. Both truck owners and foreigners in passenger cars pay the fare.
For example, in 2019, budget revenues from paying for traffic on toll roads amounted to 241.3 million rubles. When the border is closed, this source of income will also suffer.