Political Scientist: Zaluzhny Sent Clear Signal To Lukashenka
- 20.12.2022, 14:56
As soon as the military refuses to carry out the order of the dictator, 2020 will repeat itself.
Former head of the Azerbaijani government apparatus, political scientist Ramis Yunus spoke on Channel 24 about the real results of the meeting between the rulers of Russia and Belarus.
“I think that the picture that was presented to all of us has nothing to do with the real picture that was the reason for this visit. Here it is necessary to take into account both the enormous significance that the war has today, and the composition of the Russian delegation.
Judging by what was given to the public plane, it is not clear what the whole team was doing there, Putin's entire inner circle, including personal assistants?
Of course, the reality is completely different. The main purpose of the visit was to probe possible options in order to finally persuade or force Lukashenka (to join the war) at some point.
In fact, it is not difficult for Putin to remove Lukashenka, but he understands that in this situation he can lose more. Because he will not find another such Lukashenka in Belarus, and bringing someone from Moscow is not an option.”
The political scientist emphasizes that, despite the fact that the influence of the Kremlin on Belarus has increased many times over the past two years, Russia has failed to completely take over the Belarusian society.
“Putin's opportunities on the territory of Belarus have greatly increased over these two years. Lukashenka owes him everything and understands this. Today Belarus is completely occupied, it is a Russian foothold.
Another thing is that Belarusians are not Russians, they are not so zombified. And Putin understands this very well, he saw it with his own eyes two years ago.
That is, Lukashenka could not do with the Belarusians what Putin did with the Russian society in 22 years. The Belarusian ruler tried, tried, but failed — and two years ago we saw it.
And Putin succeeded, so he can put thousands of his soldiers near Bakhmut, about a hundred thousand have already died. Today, experts say that he is ready to put 300 thousand people in this war. And this data is in the information space of Russia, and, it would seem, mobilized and potential mobilized, in general, the Russians could read it.
But we do not see in Russia what we saw two years ago in Belarus. There are elements of the crisis, especially in the North Caucasus, the tension has gone, there was an exodus from the country, what else will happen if additional mobilization is announced (and it will definitely happen), we will see soon.
As for the bridgehead, which is Belarus, Putin understands that it is time to transfer the information game that was played with this territory into an objective plane. But I don’t know what he is counting on,” Yunus reflects.
Like the vast majority of experts, he is sure that entry into the war for Lukashenka, on which his ally insists, is fraught with the most catastrophic consequences.
“The day before, General Zaluzhny sent a clear message in an interview, he said something like this regarding Lukashenka: you are not Russia, you are not Putin, and you do not have such opportunities, you saw what we did to the Russians 10 months ago, think personally about your fate, let your generals and soldiers think.
I repeat, the Belarusian society for the most part is not as zombified as the Russian one, and at the first hint that one of the generals will refuse to obey, as it was during the State Emergency Committee situation, everything that happened two years ago will instantly be repeated.
Putin, in the conditions of this war, does not need such an uncontrolled situation on the bridgehead, with which he associates big plans. Therefore, he is forced to reckon with Lukashenka's whims.
But he wants by hook or by crook to bring him to participate in the war — economic preferences, and all sorts of threats, including personal ones. Whether he succeeds or fails is not known, but the fact that this was the leitmotif of the visit is unambiguous.
It is not difficult to draw such a conclusion, given that Putin has not flown to Belarus for the past three years, Lukashenka has visited him many times. And then suddenly he gathered his entire inner circle and flew! Yes, on the one hand, to show that I trust you so much that we all came to “bow”, it’s in your interests to agree.
But, on the other hand, we are ready to do it also in a bad way, if you are going to play stubborn. What counterarguments Lukashenka brought, we will find out in the near future. Prior to that, he showed the miracles of tightrope walking in relations with the Kremlin,” the political scientist recalled.