Political Scientist: Babich Will Return Only With a Recommendation to Remove Lukashenka as Soon as Possible
- 24.12.2020, 9:56
Everyone demands the dictator's departure: Moscow, Washington, Beijing.
Russian political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov writes in his telegram channel about Russia's intention to increase pressure on Lukashenka by sending Mikhail Babich to the "Belarusian direction," either as a special representative or as an ambassador.
"Babich can return to Belarus as a special representative or even as ambassador again. This is bad news for Lukashenka, especially since the main recommendation (almost a requirement) in this case will be the desire to remove the dictator as soon as possible," the political scientist notes.
Mikhail Babich is known as a super-tough administrator. If it is decided to form expansion in the Belarusian direction, then the Belarusian elite has to accept Babich's behavior style. And his mandate is not to force Russia- Belarus unification, but the fact that Russian state-owned companies finally wanted to unite the profitable Belarusian business, which is competitive on the world market. Moscow will pursue the same policy, and if Babich had misunderstood something in the Kremlin's parting words, he would not have been initially put in this direction.
At the same time, the political scientist notes that everyone is demanding Lukashenka's departure: Moscow, Washington, Beijing.
"But the trick is that Lukashenka himself, it seems, is once again scamming everyone, and he is going to stay till the end, like the memorable Salvador Allende, with a gun and in a bulletproof vest.
From his point of view, both the United States and the Russian Federation are enemies for him. Besides, Lukashenka does not really trust Putin and Biden in terms of his personal guarantees, even keeping in mind the precedent with Yanukovych," the political scientist writes.
The third way seems to be much more attractive - to negotiate with China again, and China will press on Moscow and agree with Washington to slow down for another couple of years. But Beijing, too, is not happy with Lukashenka, he has already ditched them once, and the Chinese do not forgive this, but they can play all this. Against the background of this uncertainty, there is a high risk of an increase in street protests after the New Year holidays, as they will be fueled by each of the parties that wants to put pressure on Lukashenka.