«Hegemon» War Game: NATO's Conflict With Russia Breaks Out In Belarus

• 30.01.2017, 17:43

How to protect the Baltic states and Poland from the Russian attacks from the territory of Belarus?

Participants of the war game «Hegemon» Baltic Campaign scratched their heads over it. A computer simulation of a modern military conflict under this title was held in Warsaw for the first time, Belsat reports.

It was organized by joint efforts of the two idea factories – the American Fund «Potomac» and the Polish Foundation named after Casimir Pulaski. The results and conclusions are classified. They will be passed over to the Polish and American leadership.

What role has been assigned to Belarus in the game? What will happen to Europe if the Russians remove Lukashenka from power?

Belarus, and our neighbors can be seen on a satellite map. There are red and blue flags, squares, abbreviations. This is how the war game «Hegemon» looks like. Western military and security experts are in front of the monitors. American retired General Philip Breedlove is in charge. He says:

"The war games are played not to win, but to learn. And I think we've got a good training."

What do the Poles and the Americans know about Belarus now?

What have the Poles and Americans learned about our country in Warsaw?

Only one Belarusian – Arsenii Sivitski, the director of the Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies, – took part in the game:

"The game showed a change of attitude towards Belarus. Earlier, Belarus had been taken as a client state, dependent from Russia".

Philip Breedlove, the former commander in chief of Allied Forces in Europe:

"I learned a lot about Belarus in the course of this war game. I can tell you that this issue was well specified."

"We had a great participant here, who talked to us about how Belarus might be affected by such scenario and how it could become part of it," – he added.

This is the scenario of the game, but in reality, the West seriously gets ready for such a development.

"First, the Kremlin initiates an upheaval in Belarus and removes Lukashenka from power. A completely loyal to the Kremlin political force comes to power, headed by one of the generals of the pro-Russian orientated Belarusian secret services," – Arsenii Sivitski says.

The Moscow protege invites Russian troops. The Kremlin starts to use Belarus for hybrid threats against Poland and the Baltic states. And later it grows into military threats. Further, according to the scenario of the game, the Blue side – NATO – decides to activate the fifth article and comes into conflict with the red side, ie the Russian Federation. The fighting starts.

The winner remains unknown. The organizers have not voiced the official conclusions. It is known off-the-record that, according to the scenario, the Russians deployed tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus.

Philip Breedlove, the former commander in chief of Allied Forces in Europe:

"We have a war game that is not designed to give us concrete conclusions. But it gives us the outlines, which we take into account, when we think of our power, our commitment, our technology and how well we are prepared for any possible scenario in this part of the world."

NATO actively makes preparations

In response to the aggressive actions of Russia against Ukraine, multinational NATO battalions are deployed in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia before April – about 4,000 soldiers in total. Everything is close to Belarus.

According to Arsenii Sivitski, these battalions do not pose any threat to Belarus, and even more so to Russia.

The American armored Brigade Combat Team does not create any threat, too. Three and a half thousand soldiers with tanks and other equipment are already in Poland. In February, a helicopter brigade joins them. The US forces are divided and spread from Bulgaria to Estonia. So, there is no threat to Belarus, and even more so to Russia, as the contingents are incomparable.

What is the threat to Belarus?

The NATO members can cause an inadequate response from the East, which will affect our country.

And there are a lot of questions left. This is exactly what the «Hegemon» creator Phil Peters from the Potomac fund has planned. Polish organizer of the game Zbigniew Pisarski, the president of the Casimir Pulaski Foundation, says:

"The idea of the game is to leave the participants with questions to make them ask themselves: what will I do, how will I do it? How will I respond to the challenges that we faced during the simulation?"

Belarusians remain with such questions in the lead-up to another military game – exercises "Zapad-2017", which will be held in September. The expert’s game in Warsaw has left not only the questions. Arsenii Sivitski comments:

"This is a warning to countries in the region. Not only to NATO, but also to Belarus and Ukraine. We see that the Russian Federation follows its aggressive course."

And this course was laid in the game. And the West responds to it. On Monday, the first exercise of Poles and Americans will begin in Zagan. General Breedlove returned to the United States, where he will meet with the defense committee in the Congress. There, he can tell what he has learned about Belarus in Warsaw. And the game goes on, and the main thing for our country to be not an extra in it, but an actor.